• The job market is pretty much stable.
• There is not a lot of evidence that job market is falling apart.
• Inflation has not been great and is going the wrong way.
• There is not a lot of evidence of the job market deterioration.
• Inflation rises not just energy, was elevated before war.
• We stop making progress on inflation last year
• In the last few months as I started to go back up rather than down
• Fed has to keep an eye on inflation situation.
• Everything should always be on the table for Fed.
• There is an argument that these are one time inflation shocks.
• Trying to figure out if energy shock will last
• Not a big fan of using words to jawbone policy decisions.
• Worries about markets trying to price in AI productivity gains before they arrive

The problem with calling inflation a series of “one-time shocks” is that the shocks keep coming — one after another. Prices jump higher, but they rarely come back down. If the increase is truly temporary and caused by some artificial disruption, then when the shock fades, where’s the negative shock that brings prices back to normal? It almost never comes.

A dinner for two at an Italian restaurant — two glasses of wine and a shared dessert — $258. That’s the new baseline.