Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I’ll get underway at the top of the hour, but feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time.
• Let’s get going

White Sox

• Since a 1-5 start, Sox are 16-13. Do you think they’ll finish within 3 games of .500 or better?

Steve Adams

• No. I just don’t think the pitching staff can support that level of winning. None of Burke, Martin, Kay or Fedde are average big league starters. Noah Schultz is super fun, and he very well could be, but he’s far from a sure thing yet and I expect some growing pains for him with the command issues.

John

• It’s too late to trade Mayo and Cowser imo. Do they have any value? Kjerstad as well. This team is so frustrating

Steve Adams

• Orioles *could* still trade any of the three, but not for a ton, to your point. I don’t really get what their plan was with Mayo and Kjerstad. They kept signing/acquiring guys to plug in ahead of them on the depth chart but also always seemed loath to discuss them in trades. I guess Cowser at least got a shot — I just don’t think he’s a big league regular at this point.

m

• should the giants make a trade or two to upgrade the bullpen

Steve Adams

• They’ve performed better than I expected them to, but a lot of it is flimsy. Too many performances with no strikeouts and tons of walks (Brubaker, Gage) … that they somehow have the second-best bullpen ERA in the sport right now amazes me. I doubt that continues.They should absolutely be trying to bring in some arms, but that was true all offseason, both in the rotation and the ‘pen, and they chose to ignore the ‘pen entirely and go with low-upside options to round out the starting staff. Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now.

Sean Burke

• How am I not an average major league starter?

Steve Adams

• He’s probably the best of that group, but he’s still working with roughly average velo, a well below-average swinging-stirke rate and a below-average strikeout rate. Good BABIP and HR/FB fortune thus far. I suppose he could settle in as a 4.00 ERA-ish guy, so maybe it was a bit harsh to lump him in with the others, but the general point was that he’s due for a good bit of regression, especially if he can’t sustain the massive command gains he’s enjoyed this year.

Metso Ball Soup

• Why are most trades done at the deadline now? What happened to May-June trades?

Steve Adams

• Modern front offices wait until the last possible second with any and every deadline. They can’t even make run-of-the-mill DFAs in November until 30 seconds before the non-tender deadline. Everyone is obsessed with marginal gains and making sure you’re using as much data as possible to inform any decision.The expanded playoff field, of course, impacts that as well. If you can be around .500 come the deadline, you’re loosely in playoff contention, so not many clubs are willing to make sell-side trades early on.And those that ARE willing to do so can’t drum up a full market for their players, because so many teams are in wait-and-see mode until late July.

Chisox Fan

• Davis Martin has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.

Steve Adams

• He has one of the best ERAs in baseball over 6-7 starts,  but that’s not the same thing as being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Pine Tar Pete

• Is Jon Gray still out there looking for work or did he retire?

Steve Adams

• He had a thoracic outlet diagnosis late last season and was noncommittal at the time about continuing his career. He hasn’t formally retired, but if he were actively seeking a contract I have to think he’d have made it known he had the surgery, was setting up bullpens or showcases for scouts to watch, etc.

Forgive my unbelief

• The Cardinals aren’t for real are they?  Surely the young hitters cant keep bailing out the terrible rotation and BP???????

Cards Steve

• Do you see St Louis maintaining + .500 ball for the season, or will this eventually end?

Steve Adams

• A lot of these types of questions re: St. Louis.I think it’s a bottom-five rotation in the game, and the bullpen drops off hard after Riley O’Brien. I don’t see how they can stay in it with this pitching staff, but hey, Jordan Walker finally looks great and JJ Wetherholt is as advertised, so there are plenty of encouraging things about the Cards even if/when the wheels fall of for the pitching staff.

OhBo…

• How bad can a hitter be and still have a job in the majors this day and age?  I am looking at you Bo Naylor?

Steve Adams

• Be a great defensive catcher on a team that prioritizes catcher defense more than any team in MLB. Works out for not only Naylor but also Austin Hedges!

Brewer Fan

• At what point is Sal Frelick a problem? I love Sal, I know he is a great defender, but that bat is something awful.

Steve Adams

• If you want to cherry-pick, he’s at .270/.356/.432 over his past 50 PAs or so. I think he’s fine. He’s never going to be a great hitter, but he puts the ball in play a ton and has enough pop for 10-15 homers with plus defense and good baserunning.He’s hitting too many grounders and he hit a bunch of pop-ups early on, both of which have dragged down his BABIP (.211), but I generally think he’ll be a solid regular, even if it’s glove-over-hit

wirefan

• Assuming both cole and Rodon make it back soon….  Weathers to the pen? Can’t see warren losing his spot

Steve Adams

• I assume whoever goes to the ‘pen — Warren or Weathers — will only be their short term. Another injury will create a need at some point. Both Weathers and Warren are pitching too well to be “demoted,” but I suppose them’s the breaks. Good problem to have for Cashman & Co.

JeffyM82

• If Skubal doesn’t make it back to an MLB mound this year, what does his free agency look like?  Will a team give him a longterm high AAV deal just based on the resume?  Or does he accept the QO or a 1 year deal?

Steve Adams

• Definitely won’t take a QO. I’m sure he’d have plenty of high-AAV, two- and three-year opt-out deals put in front of him, plus probably some teams willing to go long-term (but at a lesser rate than if he’d just been healthy all season).I tend to think he’s still going to end up getting paid a ton. We’ll see how the rehab goes, of course. If he comes back throwing 92-93 and gets clobbered for a 5.50 ERA in his final 10 starts or something, well…. yeah. My opinion changes then, ha.In general, he’s just so talented, and this isn’t something so scary as a capsule tear in his shoulder or a ligament, etc.

Tony

• Is Erceg still the closer in KC when Estevez returns?

Steve Adams

• I’d prefer Erceg to Estevez, but Erceg’s command has been awful this season, too. Assuming you’re asking for fantasy purposes, I’d just pick up Daniel Lynch for the rate stats and hope Kansas City eventually moves him into the ninth.

bmcferren

Steve Adams

• Feels very fluky to me. BABIP north of .400, no power, poor walk rate. Makes a decent amount of contact, but he’s averaging 86.7 mph off the bat with a grounder rate over 50%. It’s not a recipe for keeping this up

Doc Metal

• Do you think Thomas White will be promoted to the Marlins rotation in the second half? Thanks Steve

Steve Adams

• I’d think sooner than that. Sounds like it’ll be Garrett or Snelling this weekend in Paddack’s old spot, but injuries will pop up and White’s probably just better than some of the guys on the current staff already (Junk, specifically)

Chris

Steve Adams

• Emerson. Miller has been out all year with a back injury.

o-birds

• Mike Elias has made a mess of the Orioles, pitching wins games and he did nothing to improve the rotation Baz and Bassit haven’t been that good , it’s still early but are the Orioles still in it?

Steve Adams

• I mean, I wouldn’t say he did nothing. He added Baz and Bassitt, as you said. I liked Baz as an upside play but thought they paid a pretty steep price. Hasn’t panned out obviously. I loved the Bassitt signing in a vacuum, but for the O’s, I’d rather have seen them go out and add a more concrete upgrade.I do think it’s fair to say his pitching additions were underwhelming, which has too frequently been the case for the O’s. I know they made multi-year offers to Ranger Suarez and Corbin Burnes in free agency, but they haven’t won the bidding on a notable free agent pitcher or paid up in a trade for anyone who’s controllable long-term — and to what end? Yes, they’ve avoided parting with a lot of prospects … but as noted before, a lot of those prospects no longer look to be very good.
• This isn’t a knock on Elias specifically, but today’s brand of GM/president of bb ops feels pretty risk-averse. They seem like they’d much prefer to buy low on someone and have that go up in smoke than spend money/prospects on a more sure thing. Both are pitfall-laden paths, but Elias is far from the only BB ops leader who errs toward this end of the spectrum. Most of the league operates like this.Need some more Prellers, Dipotos and Dombrowskis to come in and mix things up.

Sell Jim Crane

• Do you think the Astros will sell at the deadline? I feel that Crane is the Jerry Jones of this sport and will never rebuild.

Steve Adams

• I feel like they SHOULD.I also agree with you that Crane feels like an owner who will scoff at such a notion and dig his heels in further, haha.

Josh

• When a player is on waivers or “on the trade block”, how do other teams know? Is there an overarching list/database, or are front offices talking with each other about these transactions?

Steve Adams

• Teams are made aware of every player hitting outright waivers and have 48 hours to decide on placing a claim.Trade stuff is less formal and more just calling/texting around, that sort of thing.

Ebenezer_Batflip

• What happened to Bo Bichette? He was an elite hit tool guy with huge doubles power, and now he looks very lost.

Steve Adams

• Broken record, but way too many grounders — in part because he’s chasing at a crazy rate. Hit tool is still good. Strikeout rate’s below average, and over the past month his K% is like 17. He’s hitting .265/.306/.354 over his past 120 PAs, which is bad, but trending up from his terrible start.Part of me just wonders whether there’s an element of trying to do too much and force his way out of not only his own personal slump but the team-wide malaise. He’s still hitting the ball hard … he’s just beating 60% of his batted balls into the ground. His GB% is up like 10 to 12 points over last year, last I looked.I think Bichette’s too talented a hitter not to correct things, but it’s been about as bad a start to his Mets tenure as you could draw up

City of Angels

• Is Alec Manoah done? His Low A outing looked brutal.

Steve Adams

• I’ve been out on Manoah for awhile (although despite not being a believer, I still thought the Rox should’ve claimed him last year when he was on waivers just because the org needs so much pitching depth; ditto the Angels … but they wound up with him anyhow, and maybe he’s showing me now why they passed the first time around)

Cards roost

• Noot is starting a rehab, when ready who’s sent down?  Scott?

Steve Adams

• It should be. I get loving the defense, but I have far more faith in Church’s ability to be an overall contributor

Jac

• Do you see the Yankees keeping Dominguez in the MLB if he performs – once Stanton returns?

Steve Adams

• Only if another injury opens up an everyday role for him.

Beariner

• My panic level with the Mariners is pretty low. Am I crazy?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so. My panic level with them is also low.

Moises Ballesteros

• Why am I getting no love for ROY? I may lead the NL as a rookie in Batting this year!

Steve Adams

• He has 60-70 fewer plate appearances than Wetherholt and Stewart, and he’s not going to provide much defensive value with most of his work coming at DH.Also, Nolan McLean.

The Goat

• Is Anthony Volpe trade bait or do you see him taking over second base next year?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he’s necessarily “trade bait,” but I also have to think the Yankees will be open to the idea in a way they would not have been two years ago. Not hard to see him working his way back into the plans still, but yeah, his stock is down quite a ways.

Beano

• 1 great start. 1 ok start. 1 bad start – what’s the future for JR Ritchie?

Steve Adams

• Long term, he’s in that rotation for me. But regarding the immediate future, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him optioned with Perez getting some starts or the Braves giving more looks to Fuentes. It all feels pretty fluid, and there’s no reason to keep trotting him out there if he’s going to struggle like he has his past couple times out.We’ll probably see a revolving door at the end of that rotation for awhile, and I imagine each of Ritchie, Perez and Fuentes is probably going to end up making 10+ starts this season based on how the rest of the group holds up.

Parker Messick

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he’s a 2.40 ERA guy, but I’m absolutely buying him as a legitimate big league starter — and one who Cleveland should be comfortable trotting out for a playoff start if they get there.
• I would go so far as to say he’s the Guardians’ best starter
• (I’m also just not a big Gavin Williams guy; command is so far from even being average)

Kevin

Steve Adams

• Sure, but you could basically plug him in anywhere and I wouldn’t blink. He’s not going to be expensive, he has some track record. He does seem to prefer midwest teams, given that he has the farm and family up in that region.

KevHead

• Does Owen Cassie get sent down to work on his contact rate? He’s striking out way too much!

Steve Adams

• He’s always going to strike out a lot, but yeah, 42% is untenable and if he doesn’t turn it around quickly I think he’ll be sent down to get back on track.

Allen

• What do the giants do with devers?

Steve Adams

• There’s not much they can do. I’ve said a few times in these chats that I wonder if he’s fully healthy. The decline is so sharp, and he had the back injury last summer. If he’s healthy and this is what he is now, then  …. yikes.

Murakami

• Good afternoon Steve, at this point he’s got a nice lead in the ROY award in the AL.  Give me your opinion on whether or not the Sox will shop him at the deadline, if he keeps up his current trajectory.

Steve Adams

• Depends on how the rest of the team’s performing. If they’re 8-9 games out of a playoff spot, it’d be malpractice to not listen and see if a team’s willing to send them the type of high-end pitching they really need.But hey, if he’s still raking and they just want to extend him long-term to cement him as part of the core, then I applaud that, too. Just pick a lane. Worst-case scenario would be to carry him all season, do another winter full of half-measures, then head into 2027 as a vaguely-trying-to-contend-but-still-sort-of-rebuilding club, then he gets hurt or has a big regression.

Abe

• between Schlittler, Warren, and Weathers, which do you expect to cool off the most?

Steve Adams

• Schlittler’s the best of the three. I like Weathers over Warren, but not by a huge margin. I just think Weathers is more capable of sustaining his current strikeout rate.

OhBo…

• Well, you respond as if there’s no possible limits to how poor he can be as a hitter.  Bo Naylor has an OPS of .388 (bottom of the AL) and his defensive metrics are only ok this year. While catching is not an easily replaced position, at some point he’s going to have to produce something.  The team is at .500…

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he should be on the roster at all (sorry, Bo!) — just saying that the Guardians seem to not care one iota about catcher offense. Hence the constant Hedges re-signings, choosing not to upgrade over Naylor

McGonigle

• But does Murakami have the lead in ROY conversation? Seems like a 4-horse race to me. Messick, McGonigle, Delauter, and Murakami.

Steve Adams

• Yeah I glazed over that more than I should have. McGonigle and Messick are right there. DeLauter’s probably a step behind, but he was my preseason pick so he’ll obviously go on a tear and win the award outright in a dominant sweep of all 30 first place votes. Naturally.
• (Kidding, since I picked him he’ll finish like 11th)

Chris Antonetti

Steve Adams

• Messick, DeLauter for me. Could see Bazzana, but I don’t know, pure 2Bs rarely get paid so he’d have to be an exceptional one. Which he might be! But I am just the high guy on Messick and Delauter in general.

who’s on 1st

• could/sould the M’s do another “Robbie ray” type trade with Luis Castillo? maybe with…..the Giants?

Steve Adams

• I just don’t share all the Castillo doom and gloom. Obviously he’s sitting on a 6-something ERA right now, which sucks, but his rate stats, velocity, chase rate … it’s all pretty closely in line with last year. He’s got a .367 BABIP and a crazy-low 58% strand rate. Granted, he’s giving up more hard contact, but I think he’ll be fine. He’s not 2022 Luis Castillo anymore, of course, but I don’t see anything to make me think he’s demonstrably worse than 2025 Luis Castillo, which was still a nice solid pitcher.

Chris Antonetti

• Why down on Gavin Williams, a stud?

Steve Adams

• Ninety-three pitchers in MLB have 250+ innings dating back to 2024. Only three have a walk rate higher than 10%, and only one has a walk rate north of 11%.

Tim

• any news on why the tigers fired Gabe Alvarez their triple a coach

Steve Adams

• Nope. Just saw the vague cryptic announcement like everyone else.

atleastwetried

• Feel like Chafin will be a Brewer with the Zerpa news and no real idea if Koenig will be back.

Steve Adams

• They have Ashby, Hall, Drohan, Fitzpatrick … could still end up there, don’t get me wrong, but LHRP is an area of depth for the Brewers so I don’t think they’re going to fall over themselves to get him in the org or anything after the Zerpa injury
• Ok, I have to wrap up for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions/analysis from the MLBTR team, signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office package gives you twice-weekly subscriber-only chats, exclusive articles, ad-free viewing, access to our suite of tools (contract database, GM tracker, agency database, forthcoming payroll pages), fantasy baseball advice and more.You can read more and sign up here.Have a great week everyone! Thanks for chatting.