Rotation depth has been an issue for the Padres for years and the most recent offseason didn’t do much to inspire confidence that 2026 would be an exception. So far, the starting group has been passable, with Randy Vásquez stepping up to play a big role. That has helped the Friars start 20-13 and it could help in future seasons as well if Vásquez can keep rolling.
In 2025, the San Diego rotation was middling. Overall, their starters had a 4.07 earned run average, putting them 16th out of the 30 major league clubs. At the trade deadline, they sent out some depth. They flipped Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Royals in the Freddy Fermin trade. Braden Nett and Henry Baez went to the Athletics in the Mason Miller deal. At the end of the season, they lost Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Yu Darvish required elbow surgery in November, wiping out his 2026 season.
They were able to re-sign King but Cease departed for the Blue Jays. The hope was that King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove could be a solid trio at the front of the 2026 rotation. That would leave two spots open for guys like Vásquez, Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, Matt Waldron and JP Sears.
That latter group has been leaned on harder than the Padres would have liked. Musgrove hasn’t yet made an appearance this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2024 and missed the entire 2025 campaign. Getting back in the mix for the start of 2026 was a reasonable expectation but he has hit some setbacks and his timeline is unclear. Pivetta made four starts before he joined Musgrove on the IL. Pivetta has a flexor strain and will probably miss a few months.
As of a few weeks ago, there wasn’t much reason to expect Vásquez to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He did post a 3.84 ERA in 2025, but not in any kind of sustainable way. He only struck out 13.7% of batters faced last year, which isn’t just well shy of average — it was one of the worst marks in baseball. Among pitchers with 130 innings pitched last year, only Antonio Senzatela and Erick Fedde were lower than Vásquez in that category. Both of those pitchers had ERAs well north of 5.00 and lost their rotation jobs last year.
The same likely would have happened to Vásquez if not for good luck. For one thing, he still had options, meaning the Padres could send him to the minors. Though his ERA was good, he did get optioned a few times last year, suggesting the Padres weren’t overly confident in his results. His .261 batting average on balls in play and 77.4% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. Measures like his 4.85 FIP and his 5.43 SIERA suggested his respectable ERA was a mirage.
It would not have been a surprise if Vásquez came out and posted an ERA around 5.00 or 6.00 this year. Since he’s now out of options, his roster spot might have even been in jeopardy. Instead, he’s gone completely in the other direction.
Vásquez has a 2.94 ERA through six starts. Not only that, but this feels more real. His strikeout rate is way up to 24.8% so far this year, almost double where he was at last year. His walk rate and ground ball rate have held around league average. There is still a bit of good luck, as Vásquez currently has an 81.5% strand rate, but his 3.44 FIP and 3.71 SIERA suggest he would be getting solid results even with more neutral luck.
This is still a fairly small sample of work but it’s encouraging that it corresponds to a change in his arsenal, led by improvements with his four-seam fastball. Vásquez is throwing the pitch 31.2% of the time so far this year, a notable jump from last year’s 21% usage. The pitch is averaging 94.8 miles per hour, more than a full mile higher than last year’s 93.5 mph. His spin rate on the pitch is up, and he’s getting more movement on it as well. He has also thrown more cutters, curveballs, changeups and sliders, at the expense of his sinker and sweeper.
Time will tell if Vásquez can keep this going over a larger sample. For now, it has cemented him in the rotation. Griffin Canning just returned from the injured list over the weekend and there was never a question about Vásquez being bumped out, as he and King are seen as the two locks of the rotation for now. Rather, speculation circled around the Buehler, Waldron and Márquez trio, with Márquez eventually placed on the IL as the move for Canning. Lucas Giolito will be in the mix soon as well, but Vásquez won’t be at risk of losing his spot at that point either.
In the longer term, it would also be tremendous for the Padres if Vásquez can be a viable big league starter, even a back-end one. He can still be controlled for four seasons after the current campaign. It’s possible he’ll be a Super Two guy, as his service count of 1.129 will put him right in the middle of previous cutoffs. But even as his salary creeps up via arbitration, it’ll be solid value if he’s got an ERA somewhere in the 3.00s.
The long-term San Diego rotation will still have question marks. King is signed through 2028 but has opt-outs after each season in his deal. If he pitches well, he’ll head to free agency. If he is hurt or not performing and decides not to opt out, that means he’ll be paid above his market value. It’s a similar situation for Pivetta, who is also signed through 2028 with opt-outs after this year and next. Musgrove is currently a question mark. Even if he is able to come back and be his old self, he is only signed through 2027. Giolito, Canning, Buehler and Márquez are all impending free agents. Three of those guys have mutual options for 2027 but it’s been over a decade since one of those provisions was triggered by both sides. Waldron has the same window of club control as Vásquez but he’s out of options and not putting up good numbers, so he may not even last much longer on the roster.
The farm isn’t likely to provide solutions in the near term, as the Friars have been aggressively trading from their pipeline to keep the major league roster in good shape. They now have one of the worst farm systems in the league. Sears is on the 40-man but he had an ERA over 5.00 in the majors last year and is at 7.00 in Triple-A so far in 2026. He’ll be out of options next year. The club’s top starting pitching prospects are Kash Mayfield, Miguel Mendez and Kruz Schoolcraft. Mendez hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and has only made ten Double-A starts so far. Mayfield is in High-A, Schoolcraft in Low-A.
It seems fair to expect the Padres to be looking for free agent starting pitching in future offseasons. Perhaps the incoming ownership group will greenlight some extra spending to bolster the staff, but there are no guarantees about how they’ll spend. Having Vásquez securely in a rotation spot, even if it’s not at the front end, will make the front office’s job much easier as they steer the club into the future.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
