US-Iran news:

Yen-tervention action:

Other headlines:

Markets:

• WTI crude up 2.3% to $104.30, Brent crude up 2.9% to $111.35
• S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, briefly fell by as much as 0.6% before US denies Iranian attack
• US dollar higher across the board, USD/JPY bounces back after suspected intervention
• US 10-year yields up 2.4 bps to 4.40%
• Gold down 1.2% to $4,558
• Bitcoin up 0.2% to $78,763

It was a calmer start to the new day, all before a few messy headlines made for a more chaotic last two hours.

The US had been planning to make some inroads to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the move planned for this morning. The UKMTO did come out to reveal those plans, which were not very convincing to be honest. So, it remains to be seen how effective the transit will be. That especially as it will only be through a very small path below the traffic separation scheme (TSS) route near Oman waters.

But even before we get to that, Iran came out to say that they have launched missiles at a US warship and have successfully thwarted its entry into the strait. Of course, the US has come out to categorically deny that and says that Iran is “making stuff up”.

Well, at the end of the day the shipping data will not lie. So, we just have to wait and see if there is any progress in this space. But for now, markets will remain tense until there is more clarity on the matter.

As for talks itself, things are still going nowhere with Trump not happy with Iran’s latest proposal. And with that, the war situation drags on and energy markets have to contend with another week of tightening supply.

Oil prices moved higher amid the mess of news, with WTI crude up 2.3% to $104.30 and Brent crude up 2.9% to $111.35 respectively.

Meanwhile, equities were cautiously optimistic earlier in the day but have now leaned to being more defensive instead. S&P 500 futures were up around 0.2% but fell by as much as 0.6% after Iran’s claim. We’re now seeing a bounce back to pare losses down to 0.2% but tensions remain in keeping investors more guarded ahead of the US open.

Elsewhere, the dollar is gaining modest ground across the board after the mix of headlines. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1695 while AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7180 on the day. The notable movement in major currencies was actually in USD/JPY, with likely Tokyo intervention sending the pair down from 157.20 to 155.89 earlier before a rebound now to 157.15.

Besides that, 10-year Treasury yields are sitting a little higher at 4.40% while precious metals are down on the day with gold lower by a little over 1% to $4,558 currently.

It’s only the first day of the week, so expect much more volatility to come in the days ahead.