Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage remaining, with exports down 70% under the U.S. naval blockade and a further 1.5 million bpd output cut possible by mid-May, Kpler says.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the report.

Summary

• Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage capacity remaining, according to research firm Kpler, raising the prospect of forced production cuts of a further 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May
• Iranian crude exports have fallen to around 567,000 barrels a day from an average of 1.85 million barrels a day in March, a drop of roughly 70% since the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports took hold in early April
• Iran has already curtailed up to 2.5 million barrels of daily crude production, with neighbouring producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE also forced to reduce output since conflict erupted on February 28
• Kpler said no tankers have been observed successfully evading the U.S. naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz
• Despite the supply collapse, Tehran is unlikely to feel the full financial impact for another three to four months, given the time required for cargoes to reach Chinese ports and for buyers to settle payments

Iran is running critically short of crude storage capacity, with research firm Kpler warning the country has just 12 to 22 days of unused space remaining before it is forced to cut production further, potentially by as much as 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May.

The storage crisis is a direct consequence of the U.S. naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports in early April. Exports have collapsed from an average of 1.85 million barrels a day in March to around 567,000 barrels a day, a fall of roughly 70%. Kpler said it has not observed a single tanker successfully evading the blockade in waters around the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the enforcement operation is proving highly effective.

Iran has already absorbed significant production losses. Goldman Sachs estimated last week that the country has curtailed as much as 2.5 million barrels of daily output since the conflict began on February 28. A further forced cut of 1.5 million barrels per day would represent a devastating additional blow to what was once OPEC’s second-largest source of supply. The wider regional impact is also significant, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE all having reduced output since hostilities erupted.

The financial pain for Tehran, however, will take time to arrive. Iranian crude cargoes typically take around two months to reach Chinese ports, the primary destination for the regime’s oil, and buyers have a further two months to settle payments. Kpler estimates the revenue impact will not be fully felt for another three to four months, a lag that gives Tehran some near-term financial breathing room even as its physical oil infrastructure comes under acute pressure.

That buffer may also complicate the diplomacy. With Iran not yet facing an immediate cash crisis, the urgency to reach a deal on the Strait of Hormuz may be lower than the supply data alone would suggest.