Greggs‘ (LSE:GRG) shares have been on a bit of a wild ride so far this year. It might only be April, but a lot’s happened, prompting investors to weigh up whether the stock’s direction for the rest of the year is higher or lower. If someone had invested £2k at the start of the year, would they be in profit now?

Talking numbers

Greggs’ share price started the year at 1,677p, and is now at 1,622p. This reflects a 3.3% fall, meaning the investor would have an unrealised loss of £65.59. From an initial investment of £2k, that’s not the end of the world. It’s important to note that any profit or loss would only be reflected when the stock’s sold.

However, it isn’t a great result when you consider the broader performance of the FTSE 250 (which Greggs is included in) over this period. It’s up 1% in 2026, meaning Greggs is lagging the index. Marks and Spencer (+4.5%) and Domino’s (+14%) can be seen as competitors for the company. Both have already delivered strong share price returns this year.

A brighter future?

Based on analyst projections, the average target price for the coming 12 months is 1,737p. If this proves to be accurate, it would reflect a 7% gain from the current level. But even with this, it’s not something to really get me excited. Further, these are just forecasts, there’s nothing to say that the stock underperforms from here.

If I put all the numbers to one side, the fundamentals for Greggs present a murky view. On the one hand, there’s plenty to like. The company continues to expand aggressively, with plans for around 120 new stores and a long-term ambition to exceed 3,000 locations nationwide.

Add to that ongoing investment in supply chain capacity and new formats like smaller stores and even vending machines, and it’s clear management still sees a long runway for growth.

But there are also growing reasons to suggest the share price could struggle. Recent trading suggests momentum’s slowing, with like-for-like sales growth easing to just 1.6% early in 2026, down from stronger levels over Christmas.

That reflects a tougher consumer backdrop. This makes sense, as the uncertain global geopolitical situation is seeing Britons adopt more cautious spending habits. At the same time, profits are expected to remain broadly flat this year, highlighting the pressure from costs and a more competitive landscape.

Better opportunities elsewhere

I believe there are better purchasing options to consider in the same sector, such as Marks and Spencer. We’re seeing shifting eating habits that could chip away at demand for Greggs’ traditional, calorie-heavy staples. Those in the sector that have a broader (and healthier) offer could be better placed to grow earnings in the coming year. On that basis, I won’t be investing in Greggs right now.