- Prior +0.9%
- HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelim
- Prior +1.1%
On the month itself, headline inflation rose by 1.0% and that is largely tied to a surge in energy prices (+8.9%). That’s no surprise given the impact of the US-Iran conflict, which has seen European gas prices skyrocket last month. Of note, prices for petroleum products saw the biggest jump – up 17.1% on the month.
In terms of core annual inflation, that is seen up a little to 1.1% in March as well. That compares with the 0.9% reading in February before that. That comes as we see a slight acceleration in services inflation, which nudged up to 1.7% in March from 1.6% in February.
Overall core services inflation was seen up 0.5% on the month, bringing the year-on-year change to 1.9%. Meanwhile, core food prices were down marginally by 0.1% but the year-on-year change remains positive at 0.3%.
One can reasonably expect April to reflect a further pickup in inflation pressures given the macro landscape. And that sense of higher prices could lead on for a bit longer in the coming months. The hope for the ECB is that it will all be “transitory” once again, that especially with there being much optimism for a peace deal this week.
