The price of crude oil remains tightly tied to developments in the Iran conflict. While the Trump administration continues to highlight military successes, the broader strategic picture is less settled. Iran’s leadership has not agreed to the proposed 15-point plan, keeping tensions elevated and leaving uncertainty around what comes next. As long as that uncertainty lingers—and the risk of further escalation remains—oil is likely to stay supported.
Today, crude oil is settling higher by $4.16 (+4.61%) at $94.48, reflecting that ongoing geopolitical premium.
From a technical perspective, the move higher has shifted the short-term bias back to the upside. The price reclaimed the 200-hour moving average at $94.11, a key barometer for buyers and sellers. Earlier in the day, the price dipped below the 100-hour moving average, but rebounded and based against that level near $92.41, signaling that buyers are leaning against support.
For buyers to stay in control, the price needs to hold above the 200-hour moving average and build momentum. If that happens, traders will start to look toward the next upside targets between $100 and $102.44.
On the flip side, a move back below $94.11, followed by a break under the 100-hour moving average at $92.41, would tilt the bias back in favor of sellers and suggest the recent rally is losing traction.
In the video, I walk through these key levels, why they matter, and how they define risk and opportunity going forward.
