The Cardinals spent much of the offseason looking for a right-handed bat to add to their outfield group. Interest in Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar and old friend Harrison Bader did not lead to a deal, however. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat writes that the Cardinals had a tough time selling the opportunity to veterans seeking big league deals, as someone like Hays or Andujar would only be assured playing time while Lars Nootbaar mended from his dual heel surgery. Once healthy, Nootbaar will rejoin an outfield also expected to include defensive standout Victor Scott II in center field and former top prospect Jordan Walker in right field.
The looming return of Nootbaar would be a sensible deterrent for any veteran looking to maximize playing time in order to secure a multi-year deal in the future (e.g. Hays, Andujar) or one who was seeking a multi-year opportunity this winter (e.g. Bader). That wasn’t as big a factor for players simply looking for non-roster opportunities, however, and Jones writes that one such player is now all but guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster: Nelson Velázquez.
The 27-year-old Velázquez has had a monster spring, clubbing four homers in 39 plate appearances with an overall .333/.436/.727 slash and six walks against only three strikeouts. He also had a nice showing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, hitting .277/.377/.423 with 22 walks against 29 strikeouts in 159 turns at the plate.
Velázquez has played in parts of three major league seasons between the Cubs and Royals, combining for a .212/.286/.433 batting line and 31 home runs in 615 plate appearances. There’s little doubting his power potential, but a 28.8% strikeout rate has held him back. Velázquez’s approach isn’t particularly poor; he walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.5% rate, and his chase rate on balls off the plate is several percentage points shy of average. Rather, his sub-par hit tool has been the primary deterrent. Velázquez’s 76.2% contact rate on pitches over the plate is nearly nine percentage points shy of average, however, and his 43% contact rate when he does chase off the plate is 14 percentage points lower than average.
That said, Velázquez has made some gains in terms of cutting his strikeout rate and upping his walk rate both in winter ball and in his past couple runs at the Triple-A level. He’s certainly not going to continue his preposterous spring training production, but even some modest gains in his contact ability could help him break through as a power-over-hit corner bat. Assuming he indeed makes the roster, he’ll have the opportunity to carve out some staying power even after Nootbaar returns. Velázquez is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers, but he’s also controllable for five more seasons via arbitration. At the very least, he’s put himself in strong position to earn another big league opportunity after spending 2025 in Triple-A (between the Pirates and Royals).
Also in strong position is outfielder Nathan Church, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com. The lefty-swinging 25-year-old has hit .286/.412/.429 in 34 turns at the plate this spring. He could find himself in something of a platoon situation in left field (with Velázquez) or fill a more traditional fourth outfielder role. He’s capable of playing all three spots and was credited with four Outs Above Average (per Statcast) and five Defensive Runs Saved in just 164 big league innings last year.
Church hit just .179/.254/.250 in a cup of coffee that spanned 65 plate appearances last year. His work in the minors, however, was far more impressive. In 385 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .329/.386/.524 with 13 homers, 16 steals, an 8.6% walk rate and just a 9.6% strikeout rate.
“His demeanor has been different, overall confidence is better,” manager Oli Marmol tells Ladson in discussing the difference between what he saw in Church last summer and what he’s seen this spring. “Mechanically, he has made some changes to be more consistent.”
Teammate Nolan Gorman has also been seeking consistency — in his case, for the past several years. The former first-rounder and top prospect has shown flashes of enormous power potential in the past but still hasn’t solidified himself as a productive regular. Part of that has been scattershot opportunities with Nolan Arenado at third base and Brendan Donovan seeing lots of time at second base; neither is on the roster anymore. Significant strikeout issues have been a more alarming factor. Gorman has gone down on strikes in 34% of his 1581 career plate appearances.
As Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, Gorman met with a private hitting instructor early this offseason at Arenado’s recommendation. A two-week regiment led to some mechanical changes with his setup (specifically his back elbow) and has helped him to find a more consistency with getting his front foot down during his swing.
Spring stats provide a small sample that ought to be taken with a major grain of salt, but Gorman has taken 37 plate appearances and given some reason for optimism, hitting .250/.351/.625 with three homers, five walks (13.5%) and just six strikeouts (16.2%) in 37 plate appearances.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco previewed what looks like a make-or-break year for Gorman back in late January. With no real roadblock to playing time at third base, Gorman should be in the lineup more days than not have a bit more of a set position than in the past, when he’s bounced between third base, second base, first base and designated hitter. He’s now north of three years of major league service time as well, so if Gorman’s egregious strikeout rate resurfaces and continues to weigh down his overall production, he’d be a non-tender candidate following the season.
