United States Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is a strong Trump supporter and he was on Fox News on the weekend and had this to say:

“If we get in a fight, I want to win it quick. I’m in Miami. You see this hat? ‘Free Cuba.’ Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is upon us… We’re marching through the world. We’re clearing out the bad guys… Iran is going down and Cuba is next.”

I don’t think that comes as any surprise but it will really hurt Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. You have to wonder how Cuba is going to take this as well, as it hasn’t exactly proven safe or wise to enter into negotiations with the United States.

Cuba’s military doctrine has been built around the concept of “War of All the People” (Guerra de Todo el Pueblo) since the 1980s. This assumes Cuba cannot match the US conventionally, so it emphasizes dispersed guerrilla resistance, civilian militias, underground tunnels and fortifications, and making any occupation extremely costly over time.

The US isn’t showing that it wants to use ground forces so it may bomb Cuba and destroy infrastructure in the same way that it’s been doing in Iran. The hope in both places is that would lead to some kind of popular uprising or a resistance the US could arm and support without deploying its own troops.

The question is how committed regular people are to resistance? Times are hard in the country and it’s tough to know if there’s any revolutionary spirit left. The regular active-duty military is just 50,000 troops and 40,000 reservists. The territorial militia, however, could number as much as 1 million.

Another question: Who is next after Cuba? The one country we’re not hearing about is North Korea, which may have developed nuclear weapons. America’s adversaries may take a dangerous lesson from that.