Well, they’re not going off into the wild in calling for triple-digit oil prices at least. The firm is offering a bit more of a measured take to start with as they see “mixed signals” from the US-Iran conflict. That especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz, which is what market players are heavily focusing on.
Goldman Sachs notes that:
“Brent has risen just above $80 as oil exports and production in the Middle East are significantly disrupted. We assume that Brent will trade in the $80s in March as the market processes mixed signals with some relief from a potential gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows but also some renewed concerns as evidence of production cuts grows.”
As for their price projections further out:
“We are raising our Q2 2026 average oil price forecast for Brent by $10 to $76/bbl (vs $66 prior) and by $9 for WTI to $71 (vs $62 prior).”
By all measures, this looks to lean more towards the conservative side given the current situation. And the take seems to be that they are viewing the US-Iran conflict, or at least the impact to markets, will subside in the coming weeks but may simmering tensions may prevent a material reversal in oil prices to levels seen in January and early February.
