• Prior +0.1%
• Core CPI +0.4% y/y
• Prior +0.5%

Headline annual inflation remains unchanged and continues to border on deflation territory. The bad news for the SNB is that core annual inflation is seen trickling lower to 0.4%. For some context, core annual inflation was still hovering at 0.9% in February 2025. It’s a slow descend but one that continues to threaten a return to deflation for the Swiss economy.

The bright side is that the US-Iran conflict might help to push up price pressures a little, even if temporary. However, it’s a double-edged sword as the SNB has to deal with a much stronger Swiss franc amid heightened geopolitical tensions. And they’re already having to step into the market this week it would seem here.

Despite that, EUR/CHF is tracking back lower and down 0.2% again to 0.9058 currently. All eyes will be on the 0.9000 level to see what the SNB intervention appetite would be like in the days/weeks ahead.