The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran.
Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan.
What’s less clear are the goals of the mission, which might be as simple as wrecking Iran’s military infrastructure. But what if Iran keeps on firing drones and missiles? What if it continues to threaten or attack its neighbours?
War can always go sideways, much like it has for Russia in Ukraine. So far Iran doesn’t appear to have much support for foreign powers so maybe this turns out differently but it’s also hard to see any regime change in Iran without changing anything on the ground. It also doesn’t look like there is any kind of organized opposition and certainly not a military opposition within the country.
In addition, the idea of ‘boots on the ground’ is deeply unpopular in the US after Iraq and Afghanistan. This attack is already polling poorly so there is little appetite to keep the fight going.
The nuance is Trump’s comment is that he “doesn’t think” there will be ground forces but that’s not nearly as equivocal as J.D. Vance previously who entirely ruled it out.
In any case, crude is ticking higher in Asia once again with WTI crude up 69 cents to $71.92. Gold is also nicely bid, up $41 to $5369.
