• Prior was 282.4K
• Starts down 15% m/m
• Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m

Canada’s housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest annual total on record. Rental housing drove much of the gain, accounting for over half of all urban starts for a second consecutive year.

In October, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) dropped sharply by 17% to 232,765 units from September’s 279,174, as Ontario and British Columbia pulled back significantly. Toronto saw a 42% year-over-year decline and Vancouver fell 36%, while Montreal surged 104% on strong multi-unit activity. The six-month trend slipped 3% to 268,907 units.

November brought a partial recovery, with the SAAR rising 9.4% to 254,058 units. However, actual starts were down 3% year-over-year at 21,870 units, and the six-month trend continued declining, falling 1.7% to 264,445. CMHC noted slowing momentum driven by weakness in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta.

December closed the year on a high note, with the SAAR jumping 11% to 282,439 units. Actual starts surged 25% year-over-year to 20,716 units — the most for any December on record — led by Ontario posting its highest monthly total of 2025. Among the big three cities, Toronto rebounded with a 151% year-over-year increase, Montreal posted a 123% gain, and Vancouver rose 17%.

Despite the strong finish, CMHC Chief Economist Mathieu Laberge cautioned that most of 2025’s momentum occurred in the spring and summer, with the six-month trend declining steadily since September. Economic uncertainty and the reduced viability of large residential towers shifted developers toward smaller-scale projects, leaving housing starts entering 2026 from a weaker position. CMHC estimates that 430,000 to 480,000 new units per year are needed to restore affordability — roughly double the current pace.