The USDCAD since mid-December has been trading “mostly” within a range from 1.4268 to 1.4471 (value area or Red Box). There has been breaks above and below -mostly on news on tariffs either against Canada (higher USDCAD) or for Canada (lower USDCAD).

At the lows this week, the price traded the low of the “value area” and found willing buyers leaning against the level.

Today, the bounce off the low is continuing with the USDCAD pushing above the 100-hour moving average, shifting the near-term bias more to the upside. If the pair holds above this level, further gains toward the upper boundary of the value area between 1.4448 to 1.4471 (highlighted in yellow) cannot be ruled out.

The current move above key moving averages, including the 200-hour MA (1.4326), the 50% of the range since the February low at 1.4345, and the 200-hour MA (1.4380), suggests buyers are gaining control.

Buyers are making more of a play, but the price remains within the Red Box or value area.