US Pres. Trump and Russian Pres. Trump met with hopes for a 30 day ceasefire as a prelude to a more lasting peace to follow. What was agreed was the idea of refraining from striking energy facilities for 30 days.

Both leaders agreed to stay in contact and expressed mutual interest in normalizing relations, emphasizing their shared responsibility for global security. They also agreed to swap 175 prisoners of war (POWs) on each side, with Russia set to hand over 23 gravely injured Ukrainian servicemen.

Additionally, Russia and the U.S. will establish expert groups focused on resolving the Ukrainian conflict. However, Putin insisted that any ceasefire must include a halt to Ukrainian mobilization and arms supplies.

While these discussions reaffirm Putin’s stated commitment to a peaceful resolution, they do not appear to signal a major ceasefire breakthrough.

In a lighter exchange, Trump reportedly supported Putin’s idea of organizing ice hockey games between Russian and U.S. players. Maybe nations can use the lessons from sport as a way to unite and get along as a global team. There are areas of common problems where compromise can lead to a win-win (i.e. bloated defense spending where funds are diverted from other more beneficial initiatives).

The news from the phone conversation was nevertheless not enough to reverse what was a down day in the US stock market. The major indices in the US gapped lower at the open and could not get out of the negative territory for the entire day. Not helping the tone was a report in the Wall Street Journal that US was looking two bucket nations for tariffs and that tariffs would take into account VAT as a tariff (even though VAT is charged on all products whether produced domestically or internationally).

Looking at the closing levels:

• Dow industrial average is closing down -260.32 points or -0.62% at 41581.31. The index was down -54.38 points at session highs and -426.20 at session lows
• S&P is closing down -60.46 points or -1.07% at 5614.66. At session highs today, the price was down -20.59 points and at session lows the price was down -77.36 points
• Nasdaq is closing down -304.55 points or -1.71% at 17504.12. At session highs today, the price was down -125.74 points and at session lows the price was down -376.99.

Shares in Europe did not see the selling that the US did after Germany Bundestag passed Chancellor Merz’s fiscal reform with the final tally showing 513 in favor and 207 against. The vote needed 489 votes to pass constitutional reform.

The reformed debt policies would allow higher defense spending and create a €500 billion ($548 billion) infrastructure and climate fund. The proposal, backed by the CDU-CSU and SPD, seeks to exempt defense and infrastructure-related loans from the debt brake, while also granting more flexibility to Germany’s states. A two-thirds majority is required for the package to pass, and the Bundesrat must also approve it on Friday.

The final numbers in Europe showed:

• German DAX, +0.98%
• France’s CAC +0.50%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.29%
• Spain’s Ibex, +1.58%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.31%

Crude oil fell close to one dollar -1.39% to $66.64. After the close, the inventory data showed crude stocks rose 4.6 million barrels versus an expected build of 0.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell -1.7 million barrels versus expected -2.4 million and distillates showed a drawdown -2.1 million barrels versus expected -0.3 million barrels.

Gold traded to a new record high of $3038.31. It is trading at $3034.22 up $33.15 or 1.11%.

Bitcoin is down $-2083 at $81,975 as off risk sentiment continues to weigh on the digital currency.

Fundamentally, US housing starts showed a bigger than expected in lies rate 1.501 million versus 1.38 million estimate. The numbers may have been influenced by usually harsh weather in January leading to a rebound in February.

Canada’s CPI YoY came in higher 2.6% versus 2.2%

Industrial production was higher and 0.7% versus 0.2%

Finally in the forex:

• EURUSD is closing higher on the day and near the high of a swing area between 1.0936 and 1.0954. The move higher was not without volatile down and up price action. The current price is trading at 1.0944. The sellers have put the lid on the pair within this area today. Can they keep the selling pressure in the new trading day. A break above would target 1.1000 to 1.1014.
• GBPUSD is also higher after a volatile up and down trading day. The pair is moving away from its 61.8% retracement of the move down from the September 2024 high at 1.2922. Staying above that level in the new day would keep the buyers in firm control. The current price is trading at 1.3000 – a key natural target
• USDJPY is little changed at 149.25 after moving to the highest level since March 5th. The price is just above the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low at 149.22. That may be a key barometer in the new trading day for both buyers and sellers.
• The NZDUSD held corrective support at 0.5796 today and is trading at 0.5818 as the day comes to an end. If the price can hold above 0.5796, the bias favors a move toward the 38.2% of the move down from the September 2024 high. That level comes in at 0.5844.
• AUDUSD sellers had their shot with a move back below the 100 day MA at 0.6349. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price is back above the MA at 0.6361. Tha 100 day MA will be the key barometer in the new trading day.