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German states see softer headline inflation readings in December

There’s only a couple out for now and I will update the list below as and when the releases come about, which tend to be roughly around the same time. Here’s what we got so far:

  • North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +2.3% y/y prior
  • Saxony CPI +1.9% vs +2.2% y/y prior
  • Bavaria CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y prior
  • Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +% vs +2.3% y/y prior

Some backdrop from earlier in the day:

“As for the German report later, the estimates point to a cooling in headline annual inflation. The expectation is for a 2.1% reading, down from 2.3% in November. But again, the core annual inflation estimate is the more important detail to look out for. And that stood at 2.7% in November, just a little down from 2.8% in October. It’s still on the higher side though, keeping stubborn above the 2% threshold.”

At the balance so far, we can roughly see the national reading come in around 1.9% to 2.0% as compared to 2.3% in November last year. But again, the key thing to pay attention to will be the core annual inflation reading instead.

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