Houston Rockets 2024-25 season preview: Is the franchise able to make a giant splash?

The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the largest questions, best- and worst-case situations, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Take pleasure in!

HOUSTON ROCKETS

2023-24 end

Offseason strikes

• Additions: Steven Adams (effectively, technically he got there in February, however he by no means truly performed), Reed Sheppard, Jack McVeigh, N’Faly Dante

• Subtractions: Reggie Bullock, Boban Marjanović

• Complete roster

The Large Query: Does Houston keep the course or make a giant splash?

The Rockets completed excessive in three classes within the annual NBA.com GM Survey. They have been the third-most widespread reply to, “Which group has probably the most promising younger core?” In addition they acquired votes to be this season’s most improved group — no imply feat, contemplating they simply went from 22 to 41 wins, the NBA’s largest year-over-year enchancment.

The third — tying for second in, “Which group’s degree of success this season is hardest to foretell? — appears related to the opposite two. It will depend on what number of members of that “promising younger core” make a leap … and on whether or not some show promising sufficient to change into chips in a commerce for a star to ship the Rockets into orbit.

“Now we have excessive expectations,” proprietor Tilman Fertitta said. “However to be nice, we now have to get a bit older.”

These Rockets function seven gamers underneath 24, together with 4 top-four picks and three post-lottery gamers who’ve impressed — most notably Alperen Şengün, who’s simply scratching the floor of his expertise and would possibly already be Houston’s greatest participant:

Then there are veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks — imported final season to make the Rockets respectable, and due $65 million this season to make them winners.

“Our eyes must be set on that — set on advancing,” VanVleet said. “Not simply making the playoffs, however advancing.”

For now, at the least, they’ll have continuity on their aspect. The Rockets return a league-high 97% of the minutes from final 12 months’s group, which made dramatic defensive gains underneath Ime Udoka and fielded a top-seven offense over the final 25 games. On the coronary heart of that closing kick: Jalen Inexperienced, a tantalizing talent who averaged 27.7 factors per recreation on .613 true shooting in March because the Rockets mounted a play-in push that got here up quick.

To that already intriguing combine, Houston provides veteran mauler Adams to again up Şengün, and No. 3 total choose Sheppard, whose elite capturing, pick-and-roll playmaking and magnet-handed protection may benefit main minutes. Think about a wholesome return from chaos agent Tari Eason and extra minutes for rising sophomore Cam Whitmore, and that’s an terrible lot of dudes for Udoka to handle — a gaggle with huge fields’ value of room to develop, and that wants area to do it.

“Hopefully, this group of gamers takes one other step ahead, and at the least the core we now have can keep collectively for a very long time and be very profitable,” Rockets basic supervisor Rafael Stone not too long ago told reporters. “That’s positively Plan A.”

Humorous factor in regards to the alphabet, although: There’s, like, a lot of letters after “A.”

The draw back of a lot depth: It makes discovering sufficient growth alternatives for everybody difficult. How will Udoka cut up ball-handling alternatives between the sure-handed VanVleet and the youthful Inexperienced, Thompson and Sheppard? How can he get Şengün and Inexperienced, whose All-Star moments got here at reverse ends of the season, to create elite offense collectively?

How will Udoka juggle Brooks, Smith, Thompson, Whitmore and Eason at ahead? How will he handle a three-deep heart rotation of Şengün, Adams and Jock Landale whereas additionally discovering area for the Smith/Thompson small-ball lineups that supercharged the late-season offense?

All these questions make Houston an apparent candidate for a consolidation commerce. Add in the truth that the Rockets additionally control more than enough draft capital to get into any commerce talks for the following accessible star, and a major deal appears like a when-not-if proposition.

The “when” issues, although, as a result of Houston may not fairly be able to take its huge swing. Neither Inexperienced nor Şengün have but signed rookie-scale extensions; the Rockets would possibly look to carry off on a Şengün take care of a watch towards sustaining his decrease 2025-26 cap maintain. That may permit them to principally bulldoze their books by declining VanVleet’s $44.8 million group choice, opening up practically $69 million in cap area to go big-game looking earlier than going over the cap to re-up Şengün. (If this sounds acquainted, that’s as a result of it’s how the 76ers just landed Paul George and maxed out Tyrese Maxey.)

However whereas that form of persistence may repay, it stays to be seen whether or not Houston’s decision-makers share that specific advantage — and in the event that they’ll keep locked onto the lengthy view even when the Rockets do seem like a respectable postseason contender. All of it creates the sensation of a franchise approaching a tipping level: a roster teeming with promise, however one which additionally appears to have been constructed to be deconstructed.

Finest-case situation

Inexperienced’s late-season shotmaking surge carries over right into a renewed and vibrant partnership with Şengün, incomes them each All-Star consideration as Houston sprints out of the gate. Sheppard’s each bit the prospect he’s been touted as, contributing on and off the ball on each ends en path to Rookie of the Yr honors. With the kids creating, the offense bettering and Udoka main a top-five protection, Houston can hold its powder dry and nonetheless make the playoffs, heading into the summer season with higher gamers, higher belongings and an enviable variety of choices for constructing a would-be title contender.

If every thing falls aside

None of the non-Şengün younger gamers pop, affording Stone and Co. treasured little readability about which items to guess on whereas additionally dinging their potential commerce worth. The offense continues to putter across the backside 10, whereas the protection sags again towards league-average — a recipe for a just-under .500 group that after once more finds itself falling simply in need of the play-in match. It’s not fairly a misplaced 12 months, however the Rockets really feel a lot much less sure they’re on the verge of one thing thrilling as they exit the season than they have been as they entered.

Fantasy spin

Şengün and VanVleet are the very best choices from Houston, so anticipate them to be off the board by the early third spherical. Şengün was one among 5 gamers to common at the least 20 factors, with 9 rebounds and 5 assists final season. VanVleet’s ADP has held agency at 38, but it surely feels low, contemplating he is completed inside the highest 20 in 4 straight seasons.

Two of my largest questions are about Inexperienced and Thompson. Inexperienced’s a protected selection for factors leagues as a result of if he begins chilly, as he has up to now, his inefficiency will not harm you. Nevertheless, I am not satisfied the post-All-Star model of Inexperienced final season might be constant sufficient for class codecs with Şengün wholesome. Relating to Thompson — when will he crack the beginning lineup? Amen’s versatility on each ends is much extra impactful than Brooks’. Make sure you prioritize Thompson within the tenth spherical. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

I really feel a bit skittish on this one — the phrase “progress isn’t linear!” is working by way of my head like a freight practice — however with so many younger gamers who’ve all proven indicators of being actual NBA gamers, with so many prospects and picks to deal, and with a coach and proprietor who badly wish to win instantly, it appears like there could be each a number of incentive to get higher and a number of pathways to doing so. Three extra wins sounds a bit steep, but in addition throughout the realm of chance. Let’s be optimists and take the over.