Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 season preview: Why the stakes are excessive for Trae Younger and Co.

The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the largest questions, best- and worst-case eventualities, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Take pleasure in!

ATLANTA HAWKS

2023-24 end

Offseason strikes

• Additions: Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Đurišić, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, David Roddy, Keaton Wallace, Dominick Barlow

• Subtractions: Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Wesley Matthews, Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, AJ Griffin, Dylan Windler

• Complete roster

The Massive Query: Can Atlanta construct an honest protection round Trae Younger?

I do know: Not precisely probably the most authentic query. However regardless of the All-Star pick-and-roll playmaking dynamo producing three top-10 finishes in offensive efficiency in six professional seasons, Atlanta has received simply 45% of its video games since drafting Young. The one season through which it superior past the opening spherical of the playoffs? You guessed it: the only one in which it fielded a league-average defense.

So: If the Hawks aren’t going to commerce Younger (and also you’d assume they’re not, judging by the truth that they moved his backcourt partner as a substitute, for a return evidently greater than what they might recoup by flipping the remaining $138 million on Trae’s contract), and in the event that they’re not going to tank (a secure guess, contemplating the Spurs still control their 2025, 2026 and 2027 first-round picks from 2022’s Murray trade), then they should attempt to be fairly good. (What an idea!) And that would appear to require constructing a extra watertight protection than the unit that has completed bottom-five in factors scored per possession in five of the last seven seasons.

The excellent news: Quin Snyder has some instruments to work with there.

Jalen Johnson raised eyebrows together with his offensive breakthrough in his third season: 16 factors, 8.7 rebounds and three.6 assists per sport, shooting 68% on the rim and 38% on above-the-break 3-pointers. However the 22-year-old with the 6-foot-9, 220-pound body and 7-foot wingspan made his presence felt on the opposite finish, too, averaging 4.4 mixed steals, blocks and deflections per 36 minutes of ground time.

A participant with the scale and quickness to protect both ahead spot who additionally grabs 1 / 4 of accessible defensive rebounds will help a group simply by consuming up house. With Johnson on the floor, the Hawks’ largely feckless protection allowed nearly four fewer points per 100 possessions than when he was off it.

The return from the Murray commerce ought to assist, too. Veteran Nance brings smarts, leadership, versatility and energetic arms, constantly posting elite steal rates for a big man. The prize, although, might show to be former lottery choose Daniels, a 6-foot-8 Aussie with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, sufficient pace to stay with smaller ball-handlers, sufficient power to physique greater wings and a penchant for wreaking havoc; amongst gamers to log 1,000 minutes, solely Matisse Thybulle, Alex Caruso and Dennis Smith Jr. logged as many steals and deflections per minute final season.

If Daniels can get his jumper on-line — simply 31.2% from deep as a Pelican, and 36.7% from the quick corners — he might be a perfect fit subsequent to Younger within the backcourt, taking up the hardest defensive assignments whereas serving as a complementary playmaker and off-ball cutter on offense.

Between Johnson, Daniels, Nance and De’Andre Hunter, that’s a number of defensive choices to deploy within the mission of insulating Younger. And if top overall pick Risacher, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound swingman with a 6-foot-10 wingspan who profiles as a flexible and sensible defender, appears as snug on that finish as he did offensively in his preseason debut …

… then this might be the perfect mixture of size, physicality and athleticism on the perimeter that Atlanta’s put round Younger but. Make some enhancements containing the ball, pair that with strong rim safety from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and perhaps these Hawks climb out of the underside 10 in defensive effectivity.

And with a gentle ground beneath him, perhaps Younger — who’s now one of just three players ever with a number of seasons averaging 25 factors and 10 assists per sport, and who had the Hawks’ offense buzzing like the friggin’ Celtics within the minutes he played without Murray last season …

… can provide extra reminders of why Atlanta went all-in to construct round him within the first place.

Greatest-case state of affairs

The brand new arrivals produce one thing just like the 18th-best protection within the NBA, marking this version of the Hawks as considerably extra severe than the final couple of iterations. With that regular backbeat behind him, Younger rips off a face-melting solo of a daily season, main the league in scoring and assists as he vaults Atlanta again into the highest three in factors scored per possession. With Trae on the controls, Johnson incomes (some) All-Star buzz, Risacher displaying promise and Bogdan Bogdanović vying for Sixth Man of the Yr, the Hawks blow previous .500 all the way in which … to 46 wins, which a minimum of will get them out of the decrease half of the play-in bracket. Progress!

If all the pieces falls aside

One other disastrous protection results in progressively extra rancid vibes, because the enervating sense that you may’t construct a winner round Younger permeates the group and fanbase. We’re reminded that progress isn’t linear, as Johnson struggles to construct on his near-Most Improved Participant breakout now that he occupies a extra outstanding spot on the scouting report. Risacher fizzles greater than he flashes, resulting in renewed laments over the grim luck of successful this lottery. The Hawks are slightly higher on protection and slightly worse on offense, and the result’s one other mid-30s win whole adopted by both making the play-in nearly by default or — even worse — falling in need of that, thus handing the Spurs a golden ticket within the Cooper Flagg lottery.

Fantasy spin

There’s precedent of Younger being worthy of a first-round choose in fantasy. Younger completed twelfth in per-game worth and fourth in whole worth within the 2021-22 season earlier than Murray went to the A. Now that Murray is gone, count on Younger to hold a 30-plus p.c utilization price and common 25 factors with 10 assists this season.

Johnson missed 26 video games final season, however he has an elite fantasy profile. He’ll price a late-third rounder, whereas Bogdanović’s ADP stays too low regardless of trending up over the previous week to a mid-eighth-round choice. Bogi is an efficient supply of factors, 3s and steals. Regulate Daniels as a late-round flier.

I am nonetheless drafting extra shares of Okongwu (ADP 117) than Capela (91.5), primarily due to ADP. Capela is an automated double-double. I’ve simply grown involved about his minutes diminishing over the previous 4 seasons and the Hawks’ long-term monetary dedication to Okongwu. Okongwu has been environment friendly on a per-minute foundation whereas additionally serving to fantasy managers in FG%, blocks and rebounds. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

Transferring on from Murray represented a expertise downgrade, however I feel this roster suits higher than its predecessor, which received 36 video games regardless of Younger, Johnson, Okongwu and Hunter combining to overlook 106 video games. Barely higher well being luck, barely higher depth and barely higher efficiency in crunch time — Atlanta was just 21-26 in video games that had been inside 5 factors within the last 5 minutes — would possibly make for a barely higher final result. I’ll take the over (though not by a lot).