Forehands, titles and what-ifs: How Rafael Nadal broke tennis math

Editor’s be aware: This story was initially posted in Might forward of the 2024 French Open. It has been up to date in locations following Rafael Nadal’s announcement that he’ll retire in November.

Rafael Nadal broke math. That’s the finest praise I can presumably suppose to provide to an athlete in any sport.

Numbers are how I make sense of the world. Via them, you may come to know how a recreation is performed and what issues probably the most inside it. Every sport has its statistical pointers, its must-win classes and its unbreakable information. And all through what is going to find yourself taking place as a few 23-year profession, as Roger Federer was breaking geometry and Novak Djokovic was breaking the legal guidelines of flexibility and health — and Andy Murray, pushing so onerous to achieve the highest of the game, ended up breaking himself — Nadal made absolute nonsense out of the numbers that outline tennis.

Nadal announced on Thursday that he will be retiring after taking part in for Spain within the Davis Cup in November. “I’m very excited that my final event would be the ultimate of the Davis Cup and representing my nation,” he mentioned in a video assertion on social media. “I believe I’ve come full circle since one in all my first nice joys as knowledgeable tennis participant was the Davis Cup ultimate in Sevilla in 2004. I really feel tremendous, tremendous fortunate for all of the issues I have been in a position to expertise. I wish to thank all the tennis business.”

We have had months — years, even — to arrange for this announcement. After struggling a hip damage on the 2023 Australian Open, he took most of a yr to return, and he participated in solely six occasions in 2024; he returned to Roland Garros, residence of his record-demolishing 14 French Open titles, for 2 totally different occasions, however he suffered the wrath of the attract each the 2024 French Open and Summer season Olympics, falling to No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev in the first round of the previous and to No. 1 Novak Djokovic within the second spherical of the latter. He reached one final ultimate in Bastad in July however fell to Nuno Borges.

We knew the announcement was coming, however it’s nonetheless straightforward to develop wistful and mirror. And speak about numbers.

Forehand domination

You’d like to hit extra winners than your opponent. Undergo fewer errors. Land extra unreturnable first serves. However whereas tennis’ most prevalent statistics principally observe how factors ended, tennis gamers are much more involved with how factors are constructed. That may imply shifting your opponent round as a lot as attainable, or concentrating on your opponent’s weaknesses, no matter they may be. However at a macro stage, level building can usually merely imply setting your self as much as hit extra forehands than your opponent. Even when your backhand is superb, and even when your forehand is merely common, the backhand continues to be a extra awkward stroke, and it often behooves you to control the courtroom in a manner that retains you swinging from the forehand aspect.

Nadal was by no means the largest hitter or most aggressive participant on tour. His serve velocity by no means went too far past 110 mph. Whereas an enormous server similar to Andy Roddick or Pete Sampras would hit aces about 13-15% of the time, Nadal was at about 4%. Whereas an enormous hitter like Ben Shelton or Stan Wawrinka may hit winners on 34-35% of factors, Nadal was round 28-29% — higher than most however not a statistical standout. However due to his left-handedness, and since he had the very best wrists within the historical past of the game and will generate absurd torque together with his topspin, he might put opponents in backhand jail for so long as he needed.

Tennis Summary’s superb match-charting project has collected handbook information from greater than 13,000 matches and eight million complete photographs. It provides us a glance below tennis’ hood, and it reveals one in all Nadal’s superpowers.

In 641 charted matches, Roger Federer hit forehands for 48.8% of his groundstrokes. In 533 matches, Novak Djokovic was at 48.9%. In 302 matches, Andy Murray was at 49.1%. Three of the very best gamers the game has ever produced had been simply searching for a 50-50 cut up right here.

In the meantime, in 478 charted matches earlier than his 2024 comeback (a selected pattern I am going to discuss with extra under), Nadal hit forehands 55.0% of the time.. In a sport during which even successful yet another level for each 50 you play could make you skyrocket within the rankings, that could be a world of distinction. Nadal had loads of methods to win a degree. His protection was second to none — nicely, possibly second to solely Djokovic — and all of us have a nightmare listing of otherworldly working passing photographs Nadal hit in opposition to our favourite participant of alternative. You do not win 22 Slams in case you aren’t ridiculously well-rounded.

However when doubtful, Nadal might merely whip nonstop forehands into the backhand nook in opposition to right-handed opponents (and most opponents are right-handed). Whereas most gamers discover a repeatable edge by determining the way to win fast factors — greater than two-thirds of all factors final 4 photographs or fewer, in any case — Nadal gained solely 51% of factors with 0-4 photographs. However he gained 54% of factors with between 4-6 photographs, 55% of factors with 7-9 photographs and 54% of factors with 10-plus photographs. He would lean on you, and you’d ultimately fall.

You’ll be able to virtually blame Nadal for the demise of the one-handed backhand, too. With the torque and top that his forehand generated, even Federer, with nearly probably the most aesthetically-pleasing one-hander of all time, might neither generate correct energy with a topspin backhand nor kill the tempo and reset the purpose with a slice backhand. Nadal hit a better proportion of forehands than Federer in 25 of the 35 matches charted at Tennis Summary, and whereas Federer would usually slice about 37% of his backhands, he was fortunate to hit 20% in opposition to Nadal. In these 35 matches, Federer went 5-5 when he was in a position to slice at the least 20% of the time and 8-17 when he wasn’t.

And if Federer could not counter this weapon, then what likelihood did one-handed backhand artisans like Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-7 all time in opposition to Nadal) or Grigor Dimitrov (1-14) have? That one-hander Dominic Thiem was in a position to go 6-10 in opposition to Nadal was exceptional, however (a) he was solely 1-5 in best-of-five matches, and (b) the spin Thiem generated in response was unusual. It won’t be a complete shock that he ended up with the wrist issues that contributed to his retirement at age 31 this yr.

It goes past rallies, although. Consider what it means to have the ability to pull an opponent off the courtroom together with your absurd lefty kick serve on the advert courtroom, the place a overwhelming majority of break factors you face will come. Whereas right-handers can do this within the deuce courtroom, they’re at much less of a bonus within the advert courtroom. And whereas all factors matter, in tennis some matter greater than others.

Vast first-serve proportion on break factors (through Tennis Summary): Nadal 60%, Federer 47%, Djokovic 46%, Murray 42%

Break factors saved: Federer 67%, Nadal 66%, Djokovic 65%, Murray 62%

With a serve far slower than Federer’s, Nadal was virtually equally adept at saving break factors.

Titles

Nadal will end his profession with 92 ATP titles. That is clearly an superior quantity, however it ranks a mere fifth all time behind Jimmy Connors (109), Federer (103), Djokovic (98) and Ivan Lendl (94). However that lefty kick was patently unfair on clay courts, the place he set information which may by no means be damaged.

He hasn’t simply gained probably the most French Opens; he has gained greater than twice as many as anybody else within the Open period. Bjorn Borg, the only most dominant determine throughout tennis’ explosion in reputation within the late-Nineteen Seventies, gained six titles at Roland Garros. On the ladies’s aspect, Chris Evert gained seven. In case you return to the early-1900s, lengthy earlier than there was any kind of tour formality in tennis, a person named Max Decugis gained eight. Nadal gained 14.

Because the 1910s, just one man has gained greater than three Monte Carlo Open titles: Nadal, who gained 11, together with a stretch of eight in a row.

Solely two individuals have gained greater than three Italian Opens: Djokovic has six, and Nadal has 10. He has probably the most Madrid Open titles, too, however by some means the truth that he gained solely 5 of these feels underwhelming. That is what he did to title math. “5 titles at one of many sport’s preeminent clay-court occasions? I suppose that is first rate.”

Nadal is 544-69 all time on clay. That is a win proportion of 0.887, which is fairly ridiculous in itself. Nevertheless it consists of going 72-25 from 2001-03 and going 10-6 this yr. In between the beginning and end of his profession, he went 462-38. a win proportion of 0.924. He was unbeaten on clay in 2006 and 2010, misplaced simply as soon as 5 occasions (2007, 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2018) and misplaced simply twice 5 occasions (2005, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2022). Fast reminder: He performed in the identical period as what might need been the different two best males’s tennis gamers of all time. And he nonetheless owned about one-third of the tennis calendar for practically 20 years!

What-ifs

Certainly, once we speak about any one of many Large Three — Federer, Nadal and Djokovic — it is easy to get caught up within the sheer quantity of their particular person achievements. However the truth that they achieved all these items regardless of having to share the stage with one another is sort of disorienting. And it leads us to some spectacular what-ifs.

Nadal goes to retire with the second-most males’s Slam titles ever (22). However he misplaced 4 Slam finals to Federer and 4 extra to Djokovic. He additionally twice misplaced to Djokovic within the semifinals of a Slam that Djokovic ended up successful.

Federer gained 20 Slam titles however misplaced six Slam finals to Nadal — 4 on the French Open, plus one every at Wimbledon (you may bear in mind that one) and the Australian Open — and one other 4 to Djokovic. He additionally misplaced to one in all them seven occasions within the semifinals of a Slam the victor would go on to win.

With 24, Djokovic will find yourself successful the profession Slam titles race. However he nonetheless misplaced 4 finals to Nadal and one to Federer, and he nonetheless misplaced 5 semis to the eventual Slam winner.

To make sure, every of those titans had an impact on one another. Nadal needed to aspire to the extent Federer first set after which craft a recreation that would prime him. Then Djokovic did the identical. That all of them had to determine methods to beat one another inevitably raised every of their particular person video games. Nevertheless it’s inconceivable not to consider the totals one in all these gamers might need generated had one of many others determined to take up, say, basketball or golf or one thing. (It is also onerous not to consider what Andy Murray, possibly the fourth-best player ever, might have accomplished if none of them had ended up in skilled tennis.)

Nonetheless, the what-ifs find yourself making the precise accomplishments much more mind-blowing. How might Nadal win 92% of his clay-court matches over 20 years whereas taking part in within the Djokovic period? Together with his patented clay-court recreation (and fairly low-velocity serve), how might he beat possibly the very best grass-courter ever (Federer) in the very best ever grass courtroom match? It appears it ought to have been mathematically inconceivable for him to win 22 Slams whereas sharing the stage with the opposite two of the Large Three.

Then once more, math by no means mattered a lot when Nadal was concerned.