As for the 2026 forecast, they see the Chinese economy growing by 4.5% now – up from their previous forecast of 4.4%. From yesterday: ANZ bumps up China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.3% previously

If this is to do with the consumption plan announced over the weekend, it might not be too immediate. It was lacking in terms of economic details but Beijing is promising to address certain key aspects that is needed to ease the burden on households. Think of it as trying to brighten the mood so consumers can start to feel buzzing again.

To me, it translates more into a proposal to resolve social issues in order to bolster consumption propensity. You can sort of tie that to the whole idea of common prosperity in a way. And that looks to be what Beijing is aiming for. If so, it will definitely take time to play out.

Then again, China did set out a GDP target “of around 5%” again at the latest National People’s Congress. And you can bet that some how, some way they will achieve that – at least on paper.