Making sense of the brand new polls seven weeks from Election Day

A slew of latest nationwide and swing-state polls have come out up to now 24 hours — significantly from battleground Pennsylvania — and so they inform three constant storylines after final week’s presidential debate.

First: Democrats are in a stronger polling place at the moment than they’ve been this complete 12 months, due to the occasion’s change on the high of its presidential ticket.

Second: The battleground map seems to be extra favorable for Democrats than it had been beforehand. That’s very true within the vital Nice Lakes swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

And third: The presidential contest stays shut, with most of those nationwide and state ballot outcomes effectively inside the margins of error. No matter motion there was, we’re a great distance from one occasion or the opposite clearly breaking this race large open.

Democrats’ stronger place

Let’s look first on the newest nationwide polls.

A Fox News poll launched Wednesday discovered Vice President Kamala Harris main former President Donald Trump by 2 factors amongst registered voters, 50% to 48%, inside the ballot’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 proportion factors.

It was a slight enchancment for Harris from final month’s Fox Information ballot, which had Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%.

And whereas that motion is also inside the margin of error, the Fox ballot had Trump barely main President Joe Biden for many of the 12 months when he was on the high of the ticket — with one exception (June 2024 earlier than the Biden-Trump debate).

By comparability, a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll reveals a tied race amongst doubtless voters, 47% to 47%.

Nonetheless, that’s barely higher for Harris than what the outlet’s earlier ballot confirmed earlier than September’s debate — Trump 48%, Harris 47%, a change effectively inside the margin of error. And it’s considerably higher than the place the polling stood for Biden when he was nonetheless within the race (he had trailed Trump by between 1 and 6 factors in 2024).

A extra favorable battleground map for Harris

Subsequent, the state polls all present Harris doing higher in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Biden had been doing this previous 12 months, and positively after his debate towards Trump in June.

In Michigan, a Quinnipiac University poll of doubtless voters (as had been the entire state surveys talked about right here) had Harris at 50%, Trump at 45% and one other 4% selecting another person or undecided. A Marist survey of put Harris at 52% and Trump at 47%, with one other 2% selecting another choice or undecided.

In Pennsylvania, latest surveys ranged from a tied race to a slight Harris lead contained in the margin of error. Quinnipiac University’s survey stood at Harris 51%, Trump 45%, with 5% choosing another person or undecided. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%, don’t know/refused 4%.

However Marist and The Washington Post each confirmed a tied race in Pennsylvania, at 49% within the first ballot and at 48% within the second ballot, with the remainders undecided or selecting others.