Barclays Research says next month’s Federal Reserve decision remains a close call, but Chair Jerome Powell is still positioned to tilt the Federal Open Market Committee toward a rate cut.

In its assessment of recent public remarks, Barclays sees a split emerging inside the committee. Governors Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller appear inclined to support a cut, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid are leaning toward holding policy steady.

Speeches from Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Boston President Susan Collins suggest they remain undecided but slightly skewed toward a hold. Governors Lisa Cook and John Williams remain data-dependent but appear marginally more open to cutting, the bank said:

• before considering Powell, six voters seem to be leaning toward a hold
• and five toward a cut
• Powell will ultimately determine the outcome, noting that it would take a very high bar for the Board of Governors to dissent against the chair.