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Focus on all basic (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and points, investing information, and idea.
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Re: The New 60/40
Lawyered_ wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:08 pmCarol88888 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 2:21 pm
I hate it . Particularly the hedged fund futures. Hedge funds don’t outperform the S&P after bills. Buffett proved that along with his wager to my satisfaction. I do not know a lot about managed futures however I feel you might need expense points there as nicely together with how these items get taxed.If there’s one factor I’ve realized from these boards it is that less complicated is best. Do not over assume it.
It’s not Hedged Fund futures. It’s pattern following through managed futures. Here’s a simulation of RSST since 1992 utilizing KMLM as a proxy. RSST is 100% SPY and 100% Managed Futures.
The truth that HFND has an expense ratio of 1.22% and CTA has an expense ratio of .78% is sufficient to make me run for the hills.
Re: The New 60/40: 40% of what?
I perceive the treasuries however the remainder is a dumpster hearth. managed futures, hedge fund tracker- wtf,o? The one purpose to have gold, nicely
I can not, except you’re trend-following current gold.
Who’s promoting you this diversification plan?
westpac
Nonetheless on Patrol.
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Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.
It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
“I don’t assume myself equal to the Command I’m honored with.” -George Washington (excerpt from Journals of the Continental Congress, 16 June 1775)
Re: The New 60/40
FoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
I feel the issue individuals right here have with bonds is considered one of recency bias and expectation. Bonds used to carry out significantly better over the previous few many years so people have concluded that is how they must carry out eternally. Nevertheless, the monetary markets do not owe us a specific return on any given asset class. I am certain in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later there shall be an prolonged interval the place shares are returning considerably lower than what they do right now and people shall be adamant that shares are a foul funding.
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Re: The New 60/40
globalpatriot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:50 pm
I just like the de-risk and legal responsibility match remark above for bond causes.That being mentioned I do have 10% in “options” at the moment 3% IAU (gold) and seven% VNQ (actual property) however I don’t know if that helps a lot
.
My various asset allocation is similar to this. I’ve 5% every in gold and REITS for my various property. I checked out others however REITS and gold have cheap bills ratios in comparison with most different viable various property.
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Re: The New 60/40
What, precisely, is a “regime?” Do we all know for certain that “regimes” are an actual factor in bonds, and never one thing we understand within the document, after the very fact? The NEBR is not going to decide to saying we’re in a recession till it’s over; are bond “regimes” totally different?
Which is our technique to be?
a) Keep the course.
b) Decide what sort of regime we’re in, decide the place we’re in it, decide when the regime is about to finish or has ended, decide what the brand new regime is, and alter course each time the regime adjustments?
Annual earnings twenty kilos, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and 6, end result happiness; Annual earnings twenty kilos, annual expenditure twenty kilos ought and 6, end result distress.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.
??? In order for you Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have glorious and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as nicely. iShares and Vanguard have glorious Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You can even purchase TIPS individually at a really low price additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside exterior of america, you’ve got plenty of good TIPS merchandise out there.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
Re: The New 60/40
if you need extra return than a 60/40 (and bonds have accomplished nice recently), then why not go to 65/35 or 70/30 for long run. 1-2 dangerous years for one thing is okay – hopefully somebody purchased at bond lows
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Re: The New 60/40
FoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. Additionally they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others buyers ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
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Re: The New 60/40
nedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? In order for you Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have glorious and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as nicely. iShares and Vanguard have glorious Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You can even purchase TIPS individually at a really low price additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside exterior of america, you’ve got plenty of good TIPS merchandise out there.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
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Subject Creator
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Re: The New 60/40
What in regards to the different 20% of the time? That’s my level. You possibly can go a decade plus with adverse actual fairness and/or treasury returns as we did within the Nineteen Seventies. I feel it’s simply ahistorical to disregard these points and never embody different diversification.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. Additionally they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others buyers ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply have been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you have been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy intervals of time, they don’t seem to be very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
Whether or not wealthy or poor, a younger lady ought to know the way a checking account works, perceive the composition of mortgages and bonds, and know the worth of curiosity and the way it accumulates. -Hetty Inexperienced
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? In order for you Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have glorious and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as nicely. iShares and Vanguard have glorious Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You can even purchase TIPS individually at a really low price additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside exterior of america, you’ve got plenty of good TIPS merchandise out there.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I feel I’d know what you imply however I’m thinking about your feedback.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
Re: The New 60/40
nisiprius wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:50 am
What, precisely, is a “regime?” Do we all know for certain that “regimes” are an actual factor in bonds, and never one thing we understand within the document, after the very fact? The NEBR is not going to decide to saying we’re in a recession till it’s over; are bond “regimes” totally different?Which is our technique to be?
a) Keep the course.
b) Decide what sort of regime we’re in, decide the place we’re in it, decide when the regime is about to finish or has ended, decide what the brand new regime is, and alter course each time the regime adjustments?
I can see how my response may very well be learn as implying altering technique, however that is not what I meant. Having mentioned that, there are actually very sensible individuals that might argue we ought to be altering course, however I digress.
I simply surprise why there are such a lot of whos universe ends at “Shares & Bonds”?
Why are not any different property worthy of consideration?
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Re: The New 60/40
nedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:34 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? In order for you Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have glorious and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as nicely. iShares and Vanguard have glorious Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You can even purchase TIPS individually at a really low price additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside exterior of america, you’ve got plenty of good TIPS merchandise out there.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I feel I’d know what you imply however I’m thinking about your feedback.
Issues like this: https://www.amundi.com/usinvestors/Prod … erformance.
Diversified disaster bonds/securities. Not correlated however have fairly good returns.
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Subject Creator
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Re: The New 60/40
zie wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:10 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. Additionally they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others buyers ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply have been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you have been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy intervals of time, they don’t seem to be very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on fastened bills. Nearly all individuals must pay for issues which might be topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
The over reliance on bonds has been the Achilles heel of 60/40 however the idea of a core fairness place of 60% diversified by some low correlation property at 40% nonetheless is smart to me. Personally I’ve been concentrating on a portfolio of:60% equities: I’ve about 70% of that in TSM with 10% every of small cap worth US and worldwide and 10% in rising.
40% in diversifiers: 10% intermediate time period Treasuries (IEF), 10% in managed futures (CTA), 10% in a hedge fund tracker etf (HFND), and 10% in gold (GLD).I might additionally see simply doing 20% bonds and 20% managed futures. I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.
I might additionally see circumstances for placing in some REITS in core fairness and TIPS in diversifiers.
I’m curious how others are serious about this going ahead.
Shares and bonds are ok for me. No want for gold or some hedge fund tracker
Crom laughs at your 4 Winds
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:46 pmzie wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:10 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a foul deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they have been a couple of years in the past, if you’re into that market timing factor…
I purchased a few of the 30 yr TIPS lately at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. Additionally they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others buyers ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply have been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you have been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy intervals of time, they don’t seem to be very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on fastened bills. Nearly all individuals must pay for issues which might be topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
There are inflation-protected treasuries that improve in worth based on inflation. TIPS, TIPS funds, sequence I financial savings bonds
Additionally unsure why you say long run treasuries “are likely to correlate with equities”. They’re fairly low in correlation
Crom laughs at your 4 Winds
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:39 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:34 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? In order for you Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have glorious and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as nicely. iShares and Vanguard have glorious Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You can even purchase TIPS individually at a really low price additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside exterior of america, you’ve got plenty of good TIPS merchandise out there.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I feel I’d know what you imply however I’m thinking about your feedback.
Issues like this: https://www.amundi.com/usinvestors/Prod … erformance.
Diversified disaster bonds/securities. Not correlated however have fairly good returns.
Thanks. I do know Larry Swedroe has mentioned these.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
