Deutsche Bank says gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact, even as its traditional negative correlation with risk assets has become less reliable in recent years. In a new note, the bank argues that official-sector buying, not financial-market positioning, continues to be the dominant force supporting bullion prices.
Analysts expect central banks and reserve managers to keep stepping in on bouts of weakness, reinforcing a structural floor under the market. By contrast, ETF investors appear less inclined to buy dips while realised volatility stays elevated, limiting the responsiveness of retail and institutional flow-driven demand.
Deutsche Bank maintains that sustained official-sector accumulation is the key driver behind gold’s persistent outperformance relative to fair-value models. With central-bank buying expected to remain strong, the bank keeps a strategically bullish stance and sees upside risks to its 2026 average price forecast of US$4,000/oz.
