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Final month we listed seven groups who made the playoffs in 2023 that could miss the postseason in 2024. Naturally, individuals bought mad! Nobody likes being informed their favourite staff may not make the playoffs, however the math is fairly easy: On common the final three years (because the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 groups) we see someplace between six and 7 completely different groups make the postseason every year.
Whether or not it is accidents or variation in efficiency or simply plain outdated random luck, the road is so nice between a playoff staff and a non-playoff staff we see large shifts each single 12 months.
With that in thoughts, let’s dive into some groups who may take a step ahead and MAKE the playoffs after being on the skin trying in final 12 months. You can find last year’s list right here — it featured some nice calls (Texans, Lions) and a few horrible ones (Falcons, Panthers 🤢) and one (the Jets) that bought derailed by damage.
If I left your staff out otherwise you’re nonetheless mad concerning the different listing, be at liberty to yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson.
New York Jets
Talking of these Jets, how can they not high this listing? They completed final 12 months 7-10, outperforming their anticipated win complete of 5.8 pretty considerably. However in addition they went 4-5 in one-score video games, and, fairly clearly, did all of this with out Aaron Rodgers, who tore his Achilles 4 snaps into the season. The underlying drawback for Rodgers — other than his age (turns 41 in December) — was the query marks up entrance on the Jets offensive line. New York went all in on addressing that drawback this offseason, signing each Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses whereas investing a first-round choose in Olu Fashanu.
If the road holds up the offense could possibly be actually enjoyable. Rodgers plus Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson — each strong double-digit appears for OPOY investments — equates to a really enjoyable trio. The Jets’ different investments within the offense aren’t too shabby both: Mike Williams, a big-play risk ready to occur if he is wholesome off his torn ACL final 12 months, was a strong free-agent signing and each Malachi Corley and Braelon Allen are enjoyable additions by means of the draft.
Defensively, this staff should not miss an excessive amount of of a beat so long as they get Haason Reddick again into camp. This protection remains to be loaded in any respect ranges. It basically comes down as to whether Rodgers is wholesome or not this 12 months.
The identical above might be stated for the Bengals and Joe Burrow. The oft-injured quarterback has had fairly the attention-grabbing offseason, spending time in Paris modeling for Vogue Week after which exhibiting as much as coaching camp having gone platinum blonde and looking out like Pete Davidson crossed with a Ken doll. It is both Burrow having misplaced his thoughts or Burrow getting ready to go huge this season, and given Joseph Brrrrrr’s penchant for profitable when it issues most, I lean towards the latter.
The Bengals completed a full recreation above their anticipated win complete final 12 months and went 5-4 in one-score video games. Just like the Jets, it is laborious to essentially put their underlying statistics into context given their lack of QB well being. Burrow damage his calf in coaching camp round this time a 12 months in the past, wasn’t fairly proper till a number of weeks into the season and promptly injured his wrist, knocking him out for the 12 months. For those who take the five-game stretch of Burrow being wholesome (Weeks 5-9) he put up a 17-game tempo of 5,032 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. I used to be stunned, too.
Tee Higgins presumably holding out might have been a purple flag. Ja’Marr Chase is “holding in” could possibly be as effectively. However I feel that is only a case of the Bengals doing what the Bengals do. Chase will not miss any time, Higgins appears prepped for a full season and each guys can simply exit and earn large contracts by enjoying effectively this 12 months. Cincy additionally added Jermaine Burton and there is been some critical coaching camp buzz surrounding Andrei Iosivas.
Defensively there’s some slight concern about Trey Hendrickson‘s contract however I’d guess their bare-handed cross rusher does not skip any significant time. Sheldon Rankins is a sneaky — and vital — addition with D.J. Reader departing. Including Geno Stone and bringing again Vonn Bell ought to do wonders for the backend of the secondary. I belief Lou Anarumo to get this unit cooking once more after giving up 6.0 yards per play final 12 months.
I positively have some issues with Brian Callahan leaving and the way a brand new offensive coordinator may have an effect on this offense, however Zac Taylor is the play-caller and Burrow is extremely cerebral and concerned so the transition ought to be pretty minimal. A full season of Burrow wholesome ought to get Cincy again within the postseason.
Let’s hold the theme going! Final 12 months I correctly identified the Jaguars as a team that could miss the postseason in 2023, nailing the flip between Houston and Jacksonville. In full disclosure, I positively did not see it happening the best way it did, with Jacksonville sitting fairly at 8-3 and totally collapsing to shut out the season.
With a view to shore issues up and get newly minted bajillionaire quarterback Trevor Lawrence again into the MVP chatter, the Jags went heavy on the receiver place this offseason. Jacksonville signed Gabe Davis to pair with Christian Kirk after which used a first-round choose on LSU burner Brian Thomas Jr. Davis has been banged up and Thomas is a uncooked rookie, however with Kirk and Evan Engram within the fold, together with Travis Etienne and second-year again Tank Bigsby within the backfield, there is not any scarcity of weapons for Lawrence.
Jacksonville managed to nonetheless overperform its win expectancy, with the Jags’ level differential suggesting an 8.7-win staff. They ended up ending 3-4 in one-score video games, so underlying statistical regression ought to be pretty nominal.
For those who’re making an attempt to pinpoint the largest cause to count on a bounce-back 12 months, it is likely to be the well being of Lawrence. Final season he battled by means of accidents, together with a mid-season knee damage and his mobility dipped fairly considerably (going from 5.5 rush makes an attempt per recreation to three.6 over the following few video games) within the quick aftermath. A high-ankle sprain later within the 12 months noticed his play drop off a cliff: Lawrence accomplished 67.9 % of his passes and averaged 7.5 yards per cross try by means of the primary 13 weeks of the season, however accomplished a good 60 % of his passes and averaged simply 6.1 yards per try down the stretch. Lawrence threw seven picks in that first stretch after which managed to throw seven extra in his remaining 4 begins, all of which have been losses (Lawrence did not play in Jacksonville’s lone end-of-season win, a blowout of the Panthers).
If he does not damage his ankle towards the Bengals, the Jaguars in all probability make the postseason final 12 months. We will not predict well being within the NFL, however Lawrence was extraordinarily sturdy in school and within the professionals till final season. I feel there is a good probability we get a full season of Lawrence within the wake of his contract extension this offseason. That alone is sufficient to justify projecting the Jags as a playoff staff in 2024.
If the primary three picks on this listing might be categorised as merely a “guess on a quarterback,” then you’ll be able to go forward and classify this as “a guess on a coach.” Jim Harbaugh simply wins. Wherever he goes, he wins. He’s 144-52-1 as a school coach with stops at San Diego, Stanford and Michigan. He’s 44-19-1 as an NFL head coach and took the 49ers to the NFC title recreation in his first three seasons (with one Super Bowl look as effectively).
(Considerably sarcastically, inside the time I initially wrote this “guess on Harbs” part and the precise publication of this text, we noticed the Chargers take care of a quarterback damage as Justin Herbert was identified with plantar fasciitis. It is not sufficient to get me off the Chargers — but — however it’s completely regarding, given how that sort of damage can linger.)
This Chargers staff is not fairly as stacked throughout the board because the 49ers roster was when Harbaugh took over, however Los Angeles is vastly higher at a extra essential place, sporting an in-his-prime Herbert at quarterback. Some people are apprehensive the run-heavy system Harbaugh implements will neuter Herbert’s explosiveness, however I’d push again on that. Herbert’s stats may not be as gaudy, however he’ll be supremely environment friendly in 2024 and his downfield passing, which is a few of the finest within the NFL, shall be deadly when paired with a vastly improved run recreation. If something, Herbert was neutered final 12 months when then-OC Kellen Moore sunk his aDOT into the basement.
Including Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey with the primary two picks of the draft are excellent suits for this technique. Alt is a mountain of a person and can bookend properly with Rashawn Slater. The McConkey Hype Prepare has left the station and is steaming down the tracks. He’ll be an immediate-impact chain mover and perhaps WR1 out of the gate for Herbert. Josh Palmer and D.J. Chark are each producing substantial coaching camp buzz. Shedding Keenan Allen and Mike Williams wasn’t “good,” however it’s being overblown with this present system and setup.
In addition to, Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz took a calculated strategy to this roster: They knew main strikes have been inevitable and selected to make these strikes on the offensive facet, whereas retaining a high-priced cross rush that includes Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack intact. That may serve them fairly effectively in a tough division.
The Chargers profile is that of a bounce-back staff, too, having underperformed their win expectancy (7.1 wins) by greater than two full video games and going 3-8 in one-score video games. They have been additionally within the high half of the league in Adjusted Video games Misplaced. I would in all probability be in on the Chargers bouncing again anyway — combine in Harbaugh they usually have an actual really feel of a playoff staff this 12 months.
Atlanta Falcons
The bull case for the Atlanta Falcons is fairly easy: Kirk Cousins. The 36-year-old quarterback suffered a torn Achilles final season, throwing his standing with the Vikings into limbo. When Minnesota wasn’t keen to decide to Cousins long run, he shopped round and the new-look Falcons, now coached by Raheem Morris, pounced on Cousins, pairing him with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Final 12 months, then-head coach Arthur Smith drew loads of ire from media members and Falcons followers for declining to successfully use the trio of top-10 weapons the Falcons drafted in the previous couple of years. Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson all felt underutilized and now get a large improve at quarterback from Desmond Ridder to Cousins. Michael Penix Jr. as a high 10 choose this 12 months was extremely controversial and you may quibble about not grabbing a blue-chip defensive participant at eighth general after signing Cousins, however it’s also possible to use Penix as a strong argument for the Falcons’ playoff hopes. If one thing occurs to Cousins — and by all accounts he is approach forward of the place everybody thought he’d be this offseason — Penix is a “veteran” rookie with upside who might find yourself filling in efficiently.
With Robinson and Cousins pulling the levers, the skill-position expertise on the roster and the upper-tier offensive line, I do not actually have any issues concerning the Falcons offense doing their half this season.
Defensively, you’ll be able to definitely ask questions on this staff. However Morris has been a very, actually good defensive coach in each cease of his profession. I really assume he bought a uncooked deal the primary time round in Tampa. He was an extremely younger coach who discovered some early success (10-6 and the playoffs in his second season) however then was run out of city after going 4-12 in his third 12 months following an implosion by Josh Freeman. Issues are much more secure now and I am anticipating an enchancment on protection.
Final 12 months the Falcons matched their win expectancy to the precise quantity, however went 4-5 in one-score video games, together with a humiliating 9-7 egg to the Panthers late within the 12 months, a loss that basically rammed a remaining nail into the coffin of their 2023 season.
The Bears get yearly overestimated as a doable playoff staff, and normally I am standing on the alternative nook yelling “Not this time!” and having tomatoes thrown at me by Bears followers. NOT TODAY, CHICAGO. The logic is just about the identical because the Panthers from final 12 months (ruh roh): You might have a No. 1 general choose being dropped into an surroundings that fostered simply the ninth-worst staff in soccer.
Now it did not work for the Panthers, however … it might work for the Bears. Why? Glad you requested. See, the Bears really do have a good, ascending offensive line in place (we perhaps thought the Panthers did, that was actual incorrect). The Bears completely have precise weapons for his or her younger quarterback, having traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze so as to add to D.J. Moore, who was acquired within the blockbuster commerce that resulted in Carolina shifting as much as draft Bryce Young No. 1 general.
Chicago’s protection was nice final 12 months after the addition of Montez Sweat. I do not assume the Bears shall be a high 5 defensive unit or something, however they might take a step ahead and be above league common for the complete 12 months.
After which there’s the quarterback. All due respect to Bryce Younger, however Caleb Williams is a legit “generational” prospect. When the Panthers traded up for Younger, individuals questioned it largely as a result of somebody like Williams was within the upcoming draft. The Bears are the massive beneficiaries of that. They usually’ve executed all the things they will to place a good infrastructure in place for Williams. If he reveals up like he did in 2022 for USC, the Bears could possibly be a enjoyable, enjoyable staff.
It is a powerful one to determine as a result of the Seahawks’ underlying statistics from final 12 months really point out they is likely to be a staff more likely to take a step again. However teaching issues and — all due respect to Pete Carroll — it is doable this new teaching employees led by Mike Macdonald is able to actually implement a brand new plan.
Ryan Grubb is an interesting offensive coordinator for this group, coming from Washington the place it operated a high-powered offense with three stud extensive receivers. Good day DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Tight finish Noah Fant is getting just a little slept on too given his age and athletic profile. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are a swell backfield. And there is good buzz about Charles Cross popping out of camp re: taking an enormous leap ahead at left sort out. Geno Smith is healthier than individuals assume and if he offers with any sort of damage I just like the match for Sam Howell. In different phrases, the offense could possibly be superior.
It has been a scorching minute because the Seahawks have been nice on protection and whereas there is not any assure Macdonald is instantly an amazing rent as a head coach, I really feel fairly assured about his skill to maximise this protection by shifting guys in all places and doing the identical issues he did in Baltimore. I am significantly pumped about seeing what Devon Witherspoon goes to do that 12 months. The Seahawks may simply be essentially the most sneaky enjoyable staff in soccer in 2024.
