Paris 2024 Olympics: COVID-conscious nations dominated gold medals

Examine: Possible impact of national responses to the COVID pandemic on medal tallies at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Picture Credit score: Hethers / Shutterstock.com

*Necessary discover: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific studies that aren’t peer-reviewed and, subsequently, shouldn’t be thought to be conclusive, information scientific observe/health-related conduct, or handled as established info.

The 2024 Paris Olympics marked the second Summer season Video games because the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Western Pacific nations, resembling Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, excelled within the Olympics, notably in successful gold medals. This success could also be partially attributed to their stringent pandemic measures and a ‘COVID-cautious’ strategy.

These nations have been beforehand acknowledged for his or her efficient responses to coronavirus illness 2019 (COVID-19), together with strict measures like border closures, lockdowns, and masks mandates. These efforts have been related not solely with diminished extra mortality but additionally with a possible psychological and bodily benefit in worldwide competitors. These efforts have been discovered to successfully scale back extra deaths resulting from COVID-19 as in comparison with these reported in different areas.

In a current examine posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers in Australia and New Zealand investigated the connection between extra mortality, COVID-19 responses, and efficiency throughout the 2024 Olympic Video games in Paris, France.

Concerning the examine

The researchers of the present examine analyzed the efficiency of 18 nations within the 2024 Paris Olympics, together with New Zealand, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Italy, South Korea, Japan, China, Germany, Hungary, the US, Nice Britain, Jamaica, Kenya, Cuba, Brazil, Spain, and Canada.

The evaluation thought of Historic Olympic success, residence nation benefit, the consequences of time zones, extra mortality from COVID-19, and gross home product (GDP) development. One other variable thought of was the variety of signatories to the Nice Barrington Declaration (GBD), which displays a nationwide stance in opposition to strict pandemic measures. Any nation that signed the Nice Barrington Declaration (GBD), which advocated in opposition to widespread lockdowns and supported the event of other approaches to pandemic administration, was additionally recorded.

Medal counts for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 Olympics have been obtained from official sources. Nations have been chosen primarily based on their constant high efficiency within the earlier three Olympics, excluding Russia and Ukraine, resulting from diminished crew sizes in 2024.

Every nation was assigned sure factors primarily based on its efficiency, with changes made for components like residence benefit and time zone results. Primarily based on out there knowledge, the impression of nationwide extra mortality throughout the pandemic was additionally decided. GDP development knowledge was collected for 2020-2023, and the variety of GBD signatories was estimated.

The evaluation was carried out utilizing backward stepwise linear regression, which allowed researchers to establish key components influencing medal counts. Moral approval was not obligatory since solely publicly out there knowledge was used for the present examine.

Examine findings

One of the best predictor of medal success on the 2024 Paris Olympics was previous efficiency throughout the 2012, 2016, and 2020 Olympics, as nations that carried out effectively in these video games continued to excel in 2024. Decrease extra mortality from COVID-19 was additionally related to extra gold medals, thus indicating that international locations with fewer pandemic-related deaths have been extra more likely to win extra gold medals. Nonetheless, this affiliation was most pronounced for gold medals particularly, quite than complete medals or minor medals.

4 international locations with 10% or extra extra mortality between 2020 and 2023 obtained fewer gold medals than predicted primarily based on their efficiency in three earlier video games. Comparatively, 5 international locations with lower than 6% extra deaths throughout the identical interval gained gold medals than would have been predicted primarily based on their previous efficiency.

The house-country benefit was additionally important, particularly for complete medal counts, however much less so for gold medals. A unfavourable affiliation was additionally noticed between the variety of signatories to the GBD, which opposed strict COVID-19 measures, and the variety of gold medals gained, thus suggesting that international locations with extra signatories have been much less more likely to win gold medals. This highlights a possible psychological impression on athletes, the place a ‘COVID-stoical’ mindset might have negatively influenced efficiency.

Different components, resembling GDP development throughout the pandemic and time zone results, weren’t considerably related to medal success in Paris.

Conclusions

The present examine establishes an affiliation between pandemic responses and Olympic success in Paris 2024. Whereas causation can’t be definitively confirmed, the information means that international locations with decrease extra deaths, resembling Western Pacific nations, outperformed expectations, which can be linked to each the bodily and psychological advantages of stricter public well being measures. Nations with fewer extra deaths, resembling Western Pacific nations, outperformed expectations, which can be attributed to their ‘COVID cautious’ strategy. Thus, stricter public well being measures might have had a optimistic impression on athletes, each bodily and psychologically.

The present examine’s notable strengths embrace figuring out extra mortality as a major predictor of gold medal success. Nonetheless, the examine is related to sure limitations, such because the potential for unassessed confounding components, together with Russia’s absence from the Olympics and the distribution of latest Olympic occasions.

Moreover, whereas decrease extra mortality correlated with extra gold medals, it’s unclear if this relationship is because of diminished an infection, psychological resilience, or different unmeasured components. Future analysis is required to additional discover the psychological results of pandemic responses on athletes and to establish another potential confounding components.

*Necessary discover: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific studies that aren’t peer-reviewed and, subsequently, shouldn’t be thought to be conclusive, information scientific observe/health-related conduct, or handled as established info.