USDCHF dropped following softer US CPI data, breaking below the 200-day MA at 0.8816 but found support within the0.8792 – 0.87995 swing area, with the low print at 0.8799 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). The inability to sustain the downside led to a quick rebound, reclaiming the 200-day MA and shifting the bias back to the upside.

Since then, the pair has extended to a new intraday high of 0.88516, reinforcing the short-term bullish momentum. Holding above the 200-day MA is now critical—staying above this level keeps buyers in control, especially given the choppy price action around it earlier this week. A sustained break higher would further solidify the short-term bullish bias.

On the topside, the broken 38.2% of the move up from the September 2024 would be targeted at 0.88843. Get above that level adn the swing area between 0.8914 to 0.8922. The 100 day MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 0.8930.

Move back below the 200 day MA would disappoint the buyers and shift the bias back to the downside.