Even last week, the market wasn’t overly sure about a Bank of Canada rate cut but with all the turmoil around North American trade, there is now a near-certain belief a rate cut is coming today.

The OIS market is 96% priced for a rate cut today, which would lower rates to 2.75% from 3.00%.

What the market will be watching for are indications about the April 16 meeting. Pricing right now is 55% for a further cut.

I wouldn’t expect a strong signal from the BOC because of all the trade uncertainty but comments about the trajectory of inflation and growth will be hints.

The decision is at 9:45 am ET.