JPMorgan has assigned a 70% probability that the looming U.S. government shutdown will drag on for between 11 and 15 days, putting markets on notice for a protracted disruption. The bank said the duration is consistent with recent historical precedent and would likely delay key economic data releases, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Analysts cautioned that even a short shutdown could rattle investor confidence, while a two-week stoppage risks feeding into fiscal growth headwinds just as markets debate the Fed’s pace of interest rate cuts. The uncertainty may heighten sensitivity around upcoming private-sector data, such as PMI surveys, which remain unaffected by federal closures.

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