UBS says gold’s rally has further upside as falling real interest rates and a softer US dollar add fuel to one of the strongest runs in years. The metal has climbed more than 40% in 2025, trading just below record highs, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and sticky inflation.

The bank estimates that exchange-traded fund holdings could rise to around 3,900 metric tons by the end of next year, near historic peaks. With real rates now at their lowest since 2022, UBS argues that gold’s role as a store of value is becoming more compelling. A further leg of support is likely to come from dollar weakness, given the metal’s negative correlation with the greenback.