We had some IT issues at investingLive today but we’re back in business and while we were gone a trio of Fed speakers weighed in.

I’ll stick to just the highlights and meaningful comments. Hammack has been in a hawk in the past but really doubled down today:

• We should be very cautious in removing policy restriction
• I expected 4.3% unemployment to ‘rise a bit’ but we’re near full employment now
• We are missing inflation by a more-meaningful number
• I have one of the highest estimates of neutral, and believe we’re only modestly neutral
• Layoff notices have not been trending up
• There are signs of fragility in the jobs market
• If we remove restrictions too quickly, I am worried about inflation
• Likely to see inflation continuing to rise
• Lower income households are struggling

There is a clear position here and it’s that the economy is fine and inflation is still high, so it’s no time to be cutting rates.

Miran spoke on Friday but dove a bit deeper into his thinking on rates:

• Policy is ‘considerably restrictive’ and ‘very restrictive’
• Short term rates are roughly 200 bps too high
• Expects H2 and early 2026 growth to improve

It’s tough to even make a read on Miran but he’s a Trump mouthpiece and will do what he’s told.

Barkin:

• Wage pressure is steadily coming down
• Expect workforce growth this year to be close to flat
• Expect the current low-hiring, low-firing labor market to continue but could break in either direction
• Business optimism has ticked back up
• Low unemployment, wage gains and stock prices all supporting consumer spending

Barkin sounds upbeat and he’s often a good gauge for the core of the Fed’s thinking.