How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by […]
£2k invested in this growth share at the start of the year is worth this staggering amount
Image source: Getty Images We’re six weeks into 2026, and already it feels like a lot has happened in the stock market. There’s been a divergence between winners and losers. The FTSE 100 is up 5% this year, but I spotted a growth share that has rocketed out of the gates. If someone had invested […]
EU trade surplus shrinks further in 2025 as US exports tumble while Chinese imports surged
This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry? Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some […]
Another month, another Rahm Emanuel policy proposal. What’s he up to?
Rahm Emanuel is embarking on a three-day swing through the crucial swing-state of Michigan this weekend. But he’s not just dropping in to help boost down-ballot Democratic candidates — he’s also visiting some trade schools to unveil yet another policy proposal. The moves raise the question: Is he presenting the planks of a larger platform […]
Eurozone Q4 GDP second estimate +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim
There’s no change to the initial estimate with the yearly figure confirmed at 1.3% as well. As mentioned before, this mainly reaffirms a more resilient showing by the euro area economy in ending last year. As for annual growth for 2025 as a whole, GDP is seen increasing by 1.5% for the year. So, it’s […]
2 bargain value shares that just hit 52-week lows
Image source: Getty Images Despite the FTSE 100 hitting fresh record highs on almost a daily basis so far this year, not all companies in the UK stock market have done as well. With some stocks at 52-week lows, there can be some opportunities for investors to pick up value shares that look cheap. Do […]
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound […]
Rep. Jake Auchincloss Tells Fellow Members of Congress to ‘Touch Grass’
Rep. Jake Auchincloss Politicians Are Chronically Online Go Outside, Touch Grass!!! Published February 13, 2026 1:00 AM PST Play video content TMZ.com Representative Jake Auchincloss says politicians need to ditch their phones and get in touch with nature … telling us most are nice IRL — but they can get real nasty online. We caught […]
NatWest’s shares just got better for passive income
Image source: Getty Images Earlier today (13 February), NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) released its 2025 results and I reckon those holding the bank’s shares primarily for its dividend are likely to be pleased. That’s because the FTSE 100’s fourth-largest bank announced that its total payout for the year will be 32.5p. That’s a whopping 51% increase […]
China January M2 money supply +9.0% vs +8.4% y/y expected
New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of […]
