Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?

As the Astros struggled through 2024, speculation has grown about them exploring a trade deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander would seem an obvious candidate for such an exit strategy; however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today disproves such hopes.
Verlander waived his no-trade clause last summer in order to move from Mets to Astros, with Nightengale reporting that Dodgers, Rays and Mariners all showed great interest; however he only waived it once to return home as he loved playing there so much; thus suggesting he may not give away himself again so easily in future trade talks with teams like Houston or even just to return somewhere else in terms of free agency or relocations.
Verlander may need to weigh his love for being an Astro against his desire for competition when making any decision regarding where his future lies. After signing with the Mets with hopes of winning another championship ring, things didn’t work out quite so planned and eventually led back home in pursuit of yet another championship title ring with Houston (playoff odds at FanGraphs have since plummeted down to 39.9% from 86.2 at season’s beginning while PECOTA Standings of Baseball Prospectus still give them 64.1% chance).
if the club can’t return to contention by July, Verlander might welcome the prospect of moving onto another contender team; at 41 years old and knowing there may only be so many chances left in his career, his 2.08 earned run average should generate plenty of interest – as Bob noted last summer the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners tried hard to acquire him while other reports had Giants, Atlanta Padres and Orioles talking with each other as potential destinations as well.
Verlander may not be considered just another rental option given his conditional player option for 2025 with the Mets. As part of a two-year deal signed prior to 2023 with them, if Verlander throws 140 innings during 2024 there’s a $35MM player option on hold until 2025.
Verlander started his 2018 season on the injured list, which may reduce his odds of reaching 140 innings this year; but there’s plenty of time for that goal to materialize. He didn’t make his debut until April 19 and only has 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far; last season started similarly on IL before going on to accrue 162 1/3. An absence due to injuries could alter this timeline but as things stand he currently has enough innings available for this goal to materialize.
Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire them at the deadline due to their unpredictable outcomes. If a player finishes strong and leaves soon thereafter, only having been on their club for two or three months; but if he performs poorly or gets injured during that year – even then there may still be downsides as per Baseball Prospectus, whereby an independent physical exam must determine that Verlander does not suffer a right arm injury that would prevent him from joining on Opening Day 2025.” However, this option comes with one important caveat. Accordingly “an independent physical exam must determine Verlander does not have right arm injuries which would prevent him from joining opening day 2025.”
That clause would protect clubs against an unfortunate scenario: trading for Verlander and then seeing him require Tommy John surgery or some other major procedure before crossing 140 innings pitched – in such an instance he wouldn’t be eligible to exercise his player option unless simply struggling due to age triggered it first – although that risk does remain present – although as part of last year’s trade the Mets agreed to cover half its vesting possibility should that occur.
Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press reported at last year’s trade that Verlander is earning $43.33MM this season but his Mets teammate are covering 31.3MM of this sum; leaving only approximately $12MM due from the Astros by deadline time, though that number should decrease substantially as players leave and are traded away from other teams.
Verlander has continued his outstanding pitching at an advanced age and may become highly sought-after this summer. Although his peripherals don’t match up with his 2.08 ERA so far this season – only 19.1% of opponents struck out while giving out 10.3% walks – so far his runs-scored total is 0.2639 with 93% strand rate; though three outings since being placed on the disabled list do give an idea.
Last season wasn’t as impressive for him, yet he still posted a 3.22 ERA across 27 starts and posted 21.5% strikeout rate while simultaneously restricting walks to 6.7% of time per start.
There will ultimately be many factors which determine if Verlander is traded, with performance playing an obvious part in that decision; Verlander would almost certainly come off of the trade block should his club get back into playoff contention and need his services again. If they remain apart, Verlander might prefer competing elsewhere instead of remaining loyal to Houston if this season becomes hopelessly lost for them. No one knows whether the club prefers eating what it owes Verlander in order to increase the prospect return, versus paying another club instead for competitive balance tax purposes. Verlander staying healthy and pitching effectively are crucial considerations given his player option uncertainty.
There should also be consideration of a club’s long-term plans when making any moves, particularly Max Scherzer leaving the Mets last season – until he learned they planned a bridge year for 2024, prompting him to approve an offer to join Texas Rangers instead. If the Astros find themselves out of contention in July and August, they’ll face some difficult choices regarding Alex Bregman – likely an impending free agent who might make for an attractive trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy will become free agents following 2025, meaning that their services could either be retained for another shot at winning next season, or made available as part of a larger reset this summer. Should that latter option arise, Verlander’s desire to remain with Houston likely diminish between now and 2025.
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