Will USC and UCLA crash the party in their first season in the Big Ten?

The Big Ten is about to get even bigger—literally.

Starting in late 2024, the Big Ten will welcome four additional schools—USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington—as part of a major NCAA conference realignment that’s been years in the making and has essentially dissolved the Pac-12. The conference will now be spread from coast to coast, featuring a massive total of 18 schools that will both vastly increase the level of competition and raise some valid logistical questions as the Big Ten prepares to enter its new era.

In the women’s basketball world, the Pac-12’s losses are the Big Ten’s gains. USC and UCLA are among the best programs in the country, having recently made the 2024 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen, respectively. They also have some of the most exciting young talent in Division I, with USC’s JuJu Watkins coming off an All-American season as a freshman and UCLA’s Kiki Rice and Lauren Betts earning All-Pac-12 honors as sophomores.

Can one of these former Pac-12 teams take the Big Ten by storm in their first season in the conference? It’s not inconceivable. Remember that the last time the Big Ten expanded in 2014, Maryland (formerly in the ACC) trounced their new rivals, winning three consecutive Big Ten regular-season and tournament championships.

While such a run of dominance would be tough for any team to replicate, let alone one facing almost entirely new competition, it’s likely that USC and UCLA will continue their winning ways this winter. The four newcomers don’t have an extensive recent history of facing current Big Ten opponents, though both USC and UCLA scored victories over the Ohio State Buckeyes (who went 16-2 against Big Ten teams in 2023-24 and won the conference’s regular season title) in non-conference play last season. Both California-based schools will soon be bringing in some big-time recruits, too; USC has received commitments from six of the country’s top 100 recruits, per ESPN’s HoopGurlz rankings, while UCLA has gotten three.

What’s next for Iowa and Indiana?

Clearly, the incumbent Big Ten teams will be trying to give their new opponents a rude welcome—but it won’t be easy.

The conference expansion coincides with the end of the Caitlin Clark era in Iowa, and without the player who has meant nearly everything to the Hawkeyes for the past four seasons, they’ll need to reload quickly. Clark’s transcendent offensive game led Iowa to three-straight Big Ten Tournament championships; the Hawkeyes recently landed a big transfer in ex-Villanova guard Lucy Olsen, but it wouldn’t be realistic to expect her to single-handedly replace everything that Clark did.

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Similarly, the Indiana Hoosiers will be scrambling to fill a considerable hole in their frontcourt. Mackenzie Holmes exemplified consistency and efficiency throughout her tenure as a Hoosier, shooting at least 60 percent from the field in every season dating back to 2019-20 and leading Indiana on its most successful five-season run in program history. The Hoosiers have talent, having just shot a Division I-best 39.6 percent from 3-point range, but Holmes’ presence in the post factored heavily into generating those shots, and Indiana will likely have to make some adjustments to its offensive approach now that she’s graduated.

Even the Buckeyes, with their usual excellent recruiting and work in the transfer portal, will have some work to do. Ohio State lost one of the conference’s top scoring guards, Jacy Sheldon, to graduation, and will also need to find a new center to replace Rebeka Mikulášiková. The Buckeyes will get a lot of love in preseason polls, but they’re certainly not without weakness.

Will a new contender rise from the pack?

With so much talent at the top of the Big Ten, is there room for a surprise team or two?

Nebraska is one program that could take another step forward. The Cornhuskers went 11-7 in conference play last season and had a Cinderella run in the Big Ten Tournament, making it all the way to the championship game and nearly upending Iowa, and though they’ll have to account for the graduation of point guard Jaz Shelley, the rest of their core remains intact.

Don’t forget about Maryland, either. The Terrapins were a mediocre 9-9 against Big Ten opponents—by far their worst intra-conference record since the 2014 realignment—but have already secured several high-profile transfers, including guards Sarah Te-Biasu (from VCU) and Kaylene Smikle (from Rutgers) and forward Mayé Touré (from Rhode Island). If these players mesh quickly with go-to scorers Bri McDaniel and Shyanne Sellers, Maryland should have enough offense and athleticism to finish near the top of the Big Ten standings.