Why has Trump-Harris race remained so tight? Racism.

The 2016 presidential campaign season has started in earnest and remains tight according to swing state polls conducted for The Hill from Aug 23rd through 28th. But why is the race still so tight?

Vice President Harris quickly established her position as Democratic nominee by solidifying party support, raising vast sums and selecting an attractive running mate – unlike former President Donald Trump who struggled through summer campaign rhetoric, an unstable running mate choice and prominent Republicans jumping ship from him; former Sen. Pat Toomey from Pennsylvania’s swing state and former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney who hails from Vice President Dick Cheney have recently expressed their intention not to vote for their party’s candidate.

Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), her running mate in this year’s race for president, have been traversing battleground states while Trump remains at his resort in Mar-a-Lago.

Your wishful thinking might lead you to expect that Democratic energy and enthusiasm would have produced an overwhelming blue wave, but that has not happened. Instead, seven swing states remain close races on the frontline of electoral combat zone where either party could potentially win simply by mobilizing its base without needing broad voter support across blocs; similarly the next president needs an extensive public mandate in order to advance her or his agenda; neither candidate seems likely to own one post Election Day.

Harris will face considerable difficulty fulfilling her campaign promises under such conditions, making achieving them harder than expected.

Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders wants higher taxes on bankers and billionaires to fund tax relief for middle-income families who struggle financially – however this proposal would never pass in Congress where one or both houses are controlled by Republicans.

American politics remains fractured, leaving neither party with much room for electoral or policy advantage or support.

Racially and gender divides that plague our democracy are well documented; among the deepest divisions is between college-educated white voters and their counterparts who don’t hold four year degrees.

In 2020, each group made up roughly one-third of the electorate and their voting patterns diverged significantly; these stark discrepancies reflect America’s profound divisions that span as far and deep as the Pacific Ocean.

Seven out of ten non-white voters regardless of education level supported Joe Biden for president; a small majority of college educated white voters supported Biden; two out of every three white voters without college degrees preferred Donald Trump instead.

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont hopes to build a populist coalition, both to combat corporate control of politics and policy and institute Medicare for All as well as an adequate living wage system.

Progressive populists face a major hurdle with white voters without college degrees who vote conservative. In 2020, Americans who lived in households earning under $50,000 annually overwhelmingly supported Trump over Biden. Although some might assume these Trump supporters live in rural settings like Appalachia or East Tennessee, most resided within cities or suburbs – an easy target of progressive populist attacks!

Low-income white voters would gain tremendously from voting progressive populist. So why do they vote against their economic interests instead?

Answer: These low-income white voters who lack college degrees tend to be social conservatives. A clear majority of them were opposed to abortion in all or most cases and most disapproved of Black Lives Matter during last presidential election cycle.

Trump makes no secret of his efforts to exploit conservative social tendencies among voters who tend toward Republican ideology in order to deter them from supporting Democratic candidates such as Harris. His use of racist-tinged language proves particularly effective against an opponent with African roots – it explains why Harris remains competitive despite her momentum in this contest.

At every point in history, low-income white voters’ social and racial attitudes have prevented progressive economic populism from making headway. If Harris hopes to be an effective presidential candidate and president candidate in her own right, she must overcome social and racial divisions that stand in her path.

She can achieve success if she pushes populist economic proposals that demonstrate Democrats understand and share the hopes and ambitions of low-income voters from all backgrounds.

Expect an close contest on Election Day; just don’t anticipate groundbreaking progress on progressive economic initiatives as long as low-income white voters vote their social prejudices rather than economic interests.

Brad Bannon is an influential Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research, conducting polling for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. Additionally, he hosts his popular progressive podcast Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon that explores power politics and policy developments in America today.