So when, precisely, will we all know who the subsequent president will probably be?
Will we all know late tonight? Early tomorrow morning? Later within the week?
In 2020, though Joe Biden appeared effectively on his strategy to victory, it wasn’t till Saturday — 4 days after Election Day — that The Related Press and different information organizations declared him the winner.
And never understanding for a couple of days is likely to be nerve-racking, but it surely doesn’t imply something is flawed.
PolitiFact’s Amy Sherman writes, “Not knowing all the results on election night is normal. Here’s why.”
The Washington Post’s Patrick Marley and Amy Gardner have a good roundup of what the timeline may appear like this week.
It’s all seemingly going to come back right down to the swing states. Each state is completely different in how they rely the varied methods to vote, together with same-day, mail-in, early and absentee votes. Let’s undergo them.
- Pennsylvania: Similar to 2020, due to when mail-in and absentee ballots are counted, it might be a number of days earlier than we all know if Harris or Trump received the Keystone State.
- Arizona: Once more, it may take days earlier than all of the votes are tabulated in Arizona.
- Nevada: A state the place mail-in ballots are excessive may take days. The Put up writes, “Most states require ballots to be returned by Election Day, however Nevada counts mail ballots with out a postmark that arrive as much as three days after Election Day and people with a postmark as much as 4 days after Election Day. That creates uncertainty on when the outcomes will probably be recognized, particularly in a detailed election. The second greatest day for receiving mail ballots in Nevada is often the day after the election.”
- In 2020, Georgia was referred to as for Biden on Friday. The Put up stories that election officers expect a faster rely this time. How a lot faster? We don’t know.
- Michigan: Most stories say Michigan will be capable of declare a winner by Wednesday.
- Wisconsin: In 2020, Wisconsin was referred to as for Biden on Wednesday afternoon. So the expectation is identical timeline this time round.
- North Carolina: This state usually counts votes rapidly. The Put up writes, “Due to harm from Hurricane Helene, some precincts must name their outcomes into election workplaces as a substitute of delivering laptop reminiscence sticks to them. This might gradual the reporting of ends in some counties.”
All of that is, after all, topic to alter.
The underside line is that, similar to 2020, it may take a number of days earlier than we all know who received. And that doesn’t have in mind recounts or authorized challenges.
As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Amina Brown wrote, “Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5 — however that doesn’t imply we’ll know who received the election on that date. With every passing election, increasingly Individuals are casting mail-in ballots, which take longer to rely than in-person votes as a result of they should be opened and verified. That signifies that discovering out the winner on election night time could also be a factor of the previous.”
The 538 story appears at each state — when the polls shut and the timing of the outcomes.
This piece initially appeared in The Poynter Report, our each day e-newsletter for everybody who cares in regards to the media. Subscribe to The Poynter Report here.
