What are they pondering in Moscow, Beijing and Delhi?

When Individuals select their subsequent president, the competition is all the time carefully watched world wide.

There are numerous methods US international coverage – and the actions of the White Home – has an influence on completely different elements of the globe.

American affect overseas is bound to play a component within the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday.

Nevertheless it’s not simply in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza that this election issues.

Eight of the BBC’s international correspondents clarify why this election rematch is making waves the place they’re.

By Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor, Moscow

Think about you’re Vladimir Putin. Who would you like within the White Home?

The person who’s referred to as you “a killer” and pledged to face by Ukraine? (that’s Joe Biden).

Or the candidate who has criticised US navy help to Kyiv and mentioned he’d encourage Russia to do “regardless of the hell they need” to any Nato member nation that doesn’t meet defence spending tips (a sure Donald Trump).

At all times eager to shock, the Kremlin chief has gone on document as saying he’d truly desire Joe Biden to maintain his job due to his “predictability”.

Such a public endorsement, although, needs to be taken with an especially giant pinch of Russian salt. Moscow is prone to view the election of a Nato-sceptic, Ukraine-sceptic US president as three lemons for Russia on the geo-political fruit machine.

Not that there’s a assured pay-out for Moscow. The Kremlin was left upset by the primary Trump presidency.

In 2016 one Russian official admitted to me having celebrated Mr Trump’s victory with a cigar and a bottle of champagne. However the champagne went flat. The Russian authorities had anticipated an enchancment in Russia-US relations – that by no means materialised.

Who’s to say a second Trump presidency wouldn’t go away Moscow feeling equally underwhelmed.

Whoever wins the race for the White Home, the Russian authorities might be watching carefully for indicators of post-election political instability and polarisation in America and in search of methods to profit.

By Laura Bicker, China correspondent, Beijing

Each candidates are vying to be robust on Beijing and have related financial insurance policies to fight China’s rise together with elevating tariffs on low cost Chinese language items.

However they’ve very completely different approaches to coping with China’s regional affect.

Biden has shored up relationships there, within the hope {that a} united entrance sends a transparent message to an more and more assertive Beijing.

However when president, Trump targeted much less on being a statesman and extra on what he noticed was the “greatest deal”. He threatened to take away US troops from South Korea until Seoul paid Washington extra money.

The largest distinction between the 2 is on Taiwan.

On a number of events, Biden has reiterated a pledge to return to the self-governing island’s defence if President Xi makes good on his promise to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, by pressure if needed.

However Trump has accused Taiwan of undermining American companies and he has expressed opposition to a US invoice which despatched help there. That led some to query whether or not he could be keen to return to Taipei’s help if wanted.

When the US votes, China is unlikely to have a favorite within the combat.

In Beijing’s view, an unpredictable Trump might weaken and divide US allies within the area – however he might additionally create one other commerce warfare.

They gained’t be too eager on one other 4 years of Biden both. They imagine his alliance constructing has the potential to create a brand new Chilly Conflict.

By Gordon Corera, safety correspondent, Kyiv

There may be maybe no international nation for whom the US election issues greater than Ukraine.

Everybody is aware of US assist within the type of cash and weapons has been very important in sustaining Ukraine’s warfare effort. Few imagine that Europe might shortly or simply step into any hole.

However right here in Kyiv, most individuals are much less targeted on the ins and outs of the marketing campaign than you’d anticipate.

That’s as a result of, as one individual instructed me, November feels a great distance away. There are extra urgent considerations as cities come beneath assault from Russian glide bombs and as Ukrainian forces battle to stop Russian advances.

They’re very conscious of what’s being mentioned about Ukraine through the marketing campaign. On the subject of Donald Trump, analysts right here know he has talked about bringing an finish to a warfare and that there’s speak of slicing help.

Whereas some concern he might pressure Ukraine right into a deal it doesn’t like, consultants warning that what’s going to matter is what somebody does in workplace, not what they are saying through the marketing campaign or in a debate.

And there’s an understanding that even a Joe Biden win is not going to forestall challenges, given how lengthy it took to get the final help bundle handed by Congress.

So the stakes for Ukraine are excessive however it stays solely a spectator, and unpredictability is one thing Ukrainians have lengthy learnt to dwell with.

By James Landale, diplomatic correspondent, London

Policymakers within the UK inform me they’re trying on the US election with some trepidation.

On one stage, there’s a nervousness about potential choices that would have an effect on the UK.

Would a President Trump returning to the White Home weaken US navy assist for Ukraine and cosy as much as Vladimir Putin?

Would he decide one other combat with Europe over the Nato navy alliance? Would he spark a commerce warfare with China?

Would a second-term President Biden enhance US isolationism and protectionism? Would he be up for the position bodily for one more 4 years?

On one other stage, there’s a broader concern. There’s a concern within the UK {that a} shut consequence on November 5, one that’s not accepted as official by many American voters, might result in political violence worse than the storming of the Capitol in January 2021.

A disaster of American democracy might injury US international management and encourage autocrats the world over.

All this worries UK politicians in each main events as they put together for their very own election on 4 July.

Would they sooner or later have to decide on between supporting democratic values and staying near a conventional ally? Would they’ve to decide on between the US and Europe on some huge difficulty?

Above all, the US election presents the UK with extra uncertainty in an more and more unsure world.

By Yolande Knell, Center East correspondent

Each candidates are being carefully watched within the data that the White Home race may have actual penalties.

President Biden strongly backed Israel after the surprising 7 October assaults and has continued to produce the nation with weapons at the same time as he has turn out to be extra important of the combating and the excessive variety of Palestinian civilians being killed.

General, polls recommend the next share of Jewish Israelis suppose Trump could be higher for Israel than Biden. Most disapprove of Biden’s dealing with of the warfare. And Palestinians broadly see him as neglecting their struggling.

Israelis positively recall how Trump formally recognised Jerusalem as their capital and struck new offers to arrange diplomatic ties between their nation and Arab states.

He helps the warfare in Gaza however has additionally urged Israel to “get it over with,” arguing its picture is being broken.

Whereas Palestinians see little hope in a second Biden time period, Trump might see them even worse off. The previous president has promised, if elected, to chop off all US help to Palestinians.

Within the longer-term, President Biden continues to assist a two-state resolution – the established worldwide method for peace – though he has not given a concrete plan for reaching one. Trump has questioned the viability of an impartial Palestinian state.

Standard knowledge has it that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want to see Trump again in energy. Nonetheless, the previous president is alleged to resent him for acknowledging Biden’s victory in 2020.

By Samira Hussain, Delhi correspondent

Within the eyes of the White Home, India is in a candy spot.

The USA sees India as a geopolitical counterweight to China. India additionally has the fifth largest economic system on this planet, set to turn out to be the third largest by 2030. Earlier this month, the nation held the world’s largest democratic elections which noticed Narendra Modi turn out to be prime minister for a 3rd consecutive time period.

Though India has been accused of democratic backsliding and misrepresenting the true financial image domestically, none of that actually components for the US given India’s strategic significance.

No matter occurs in November doesn’t make a distinction to how India will function on the worldwide stage. Each candidates are identified entities.

If Biden stays president then the established order prevails, which suggests a wholesome buying and selling relationship and the purple carpet therapy. Simply final 12 months Modi was in Washington for an official state go to full with a lavish reception on the White Home in honour of the prime minister who additionally addressed a joint session of Congress.

If Trump is re-elected, the one distinction could be a query of tone. He has beforehand referred to as Modi an distinctive chief. Trump visited India in 2020 the place tens of hundreds of individuals got here to see the American president, aspect by aspect with their prime minister in Modi’s house state of Gujarat.

Proof that India can take care of whichever political final result.

By Will Grant, Mexico correspondent

Mexicans have just lately held their presidential election making a historic alternative: electing Claudia Sheinbaum because the nation’s first feminine president.

Her shut ally, outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, solid an unlikely partnership with Donald Trump when he was within the White Home. Whereas Mexico’s relations with Mr Biden have at instances been tense, the neighbours have persistently discovered frequent floor in important areas like immigration and cross-border commerce.

As soon as in energy, Sheinbaum might want to present she isn’t just an extension of the earlier administration – and what higher means to try this than by relations with Washington? As such, she might attempt to be completely different in tone and strategy to her predecessor, if not in substance, in relation to working with both Biden or a possible second Trump presidency.

Talking to the BBC on the marketing campaign path, Claudia Sheinbaum mentioned she was unphased by the prospect of both man within the White Home. “I’ll combat for Mexicans,” she instructed me.

Mexicans themselves, nonetheless, bear in mind Trump’s presidency with no fondness. The provocative rhetoric alone – “drug sellers, criminals, rapists”, as he referred to as Mexican immigrants when he descended the notorious gold escalator to launch his marketing campaign in 2016 – nonetheless sticks within the craw for a lot of right here.

By Jessica Murphy, BBC Information, Toronto

America’s northern neighbour has some worries a couple of second Donald Trump presidency.

Trump has by no means been as widespread in Canada as with elements of the US public. One ballot earlier this 12 months recommended a majority fearful that American democracy wouldn’t survive one other 4 years of Trump.

Nonetheless, whereas Trump’s time as president put a pressure on the bilateral relationship, Canada got here away with some wins, notably a efficiently renegotiated North American commerce deal.

With November’s US election quick approaching, Canada’s political and enterprise class is already ramping up for extra commerce upheaval.

It is exhausting to overstate how carefully linked the 2 nations are, particularly economically – about C$3.6 billion ($2.6bn; £2.1bn) in commerce crossed the border every day final 12 months.

So a deliberate formal evaluation of the commerce deal, together with Trump marketing campaign musings a couple of worldwide tariff on imported items have each been trigger for concern.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has launched a “Crew Canada” venture, sending politicians, envoys and enterprise leaders fanning out throughout the US to pitch the worth of Canada, each privately and publicly.

The same initiative proved profitable through the first Trump presidency.

The nation will “be able to take care of no matter will get tossed at us”, Trudeau has mentioned.