Trump-Harris debate could change everything -- though, realistically speaking, it probably won't.

Last presidential debate saw Joe Biden fall from grace and Donald Trump take the early lead in their race – though such dramatic move wasn’t likely or expected; similarly, vice president Harris may affect this election’s direction but likely not significantly so.

Un unwise statement on an inappropriate topic could easily shift enough votes for one candidate over the other before November rolls around.

No matter what some predictors, whether gamblers, analysts or otherwise claim, the election remains unpredictable and undecided at present. As I write this piece, Kamala Harris leads in RealClearPolitics ballot test by just under 2 points–well within margin of error–with five battleground states within 1 point or tied: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania with only Michigan Wisconsin outside that margin (one point or tied is considered tied in some ways).

By leaving seven states as undecided, Harris leads Trump 226-217 in electoral college votes, but assigning each state according to current leans puts her up 273-246 with Pennsylvania tied at 19 votes each way.

If the polls continue to underestimate Trump, as they did both times he ran for President, it may actually put him ahead in 2020.

Assuming just a net swing of 1.5 percent to Trump would result in him winning all Great Lakes states with less than 1 percent swings (less than 1 percent is considered an outright victory), pollsters may have revised their sampling methods more accurately to measure Trump’s support – after being burned twice during 2022 Republican support was overestimated while all his hand-picked Senate candidates except one — JD Vance — failed.

Polls always underestimate actual results because some voters may remain undecided until Election Day; and others might opt not to vote altogether).

Two poor debaters enter a room…

Both Harris and Trump possess significant deficiencies when performing live, which will most likely come out during Sept. 10. June was a vital risk that needed taking, with Biden risking his career with his disastrous performance during that debate. We don’t anticipate similar disasters from Harris or Trump on Sept. 10, though both still possess enough power within them to cost themselves an election win on that evening alone.

Harris often struggles when speaking off-the-cuff; whether that means bad jokes, awkward laughter or word salad being served up; she simply is not good alone. That she and her team have stonewalled every interview request except one is telling — especially considering she allowed running mate Will Smits to ease some pressure when answering solo interview questions during one post-nomination interview session.

Harris is further handicapped by her sudden nomination and sprint to victory; no time was given her for practice and improvement prior to nomination; either by Team Biden keeping Harris quiet over three years or simply having difficulty improving, Harris now finds herself trapped.

Every time she stonewalls the media, Harris compound’s problem. While her allies defend her no questions asked and no answers given policy, this approach likely won’t go down well among undecided voters who dislike both Harris and Trump; its purposely dodging questions creates new ones as it creates suspicion among these voters.

But Harris also shocked observers by her sudden reinvention, or more accurately her brazen abandonment, of many former policy positions. While this type of change would normally disqualify anyone running against President Donald Trump, mainstream media was quick to push an Orwellian spin around it all by framing Harris’ flip-flopping as “re-calibrating,” or pivoting and secret power as part of their cover up strategy against her shamelessness.

Next Tuesday, Harris won’t have the advantage of being protected by compliant media in her corner if there are awkwardnesses and shifting positions on stage, forcing Harris into having to remember and defend what she now believes along her new platform and journey to get there.

Harris was fortunate that Donald Trump stood as her opponent; an experienced political adversary would likely deliver devastating criticism of Harris in just hours and win her election outright.

Trump stands as Harris’ greatest ally.

Trump’s odds for conducting an effective interrogation and exploiting Harris’ inconsistencies with surgical precision may even surpass that of New England Patriots winning next year’s Super Bowl.

Trump never disappoints us with his antics: his act resembles that of “The Apprentice,” with personal attacks often peppered in with insult humor or personal jabs; when discussing himself or discussing other subjects – such as condo salesman-type rhetoric about how everything he sells is the greatest ever and every issue has no rival. We know exactly what will happen here when his acts begin rolling off like clockwork: Trump can never get away without attacking and insulting someone personally while simultaneously channeling inner condo salesmen until everything he says becomes true: everything must always remain great, so don’t bother listening or bother bothers turning this show out every time it plays itself!

Trump is benefitting from major issues. Studies show strong majorities oppose President Biden on inflation and immigration – inflation being by far the primary issue – while unemployment continues to climb simultaneously, leaving President Biden vulnerable on all fronts. Add this together with an increasingly unpredictable international scene and you have an environment ideal for Trump to exploit.

Debate stages provide the ideal venue. As more of the public becomes sequestered into increasingly narrow niches of information, both campaigns may struggle to engage disengaged independent and undecided voters effectively. That is why nomination acceptance speeches and debates play such an essential role – they provide all voters access to reliable information without interference from media that has increasingly earned distrust among constituents.

Trump faces challenging odds. In the first debate, all eyes were on Biden imploding, yet Trump failed to capitalize on Democratic disarray with an effective acceptance speech and acceptant announcement.

This debate may be their last opportunity to communicate directly to undecided voters and independents they require for victory.

Donald Trump may just score enough points to defeat Harris without incurring too much damage himself while she struggles for words and forgets her new ideas. Perhaps Harris can poke enough holes at Trump to put him off balance enough that his fury can come bubbling forth while Harris sticks firmly to her memorized script.

Most likely, both parties will score points, with Trump showing his fury and Harris offering some awkward remarks; there should be something for all sides to enjoy and dislike in this battle royale.

Keith Naughton is co-founder and former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant of Silent Majority Strategies, an environmental, public affairs consulting firm.