Travis Kelce off to gradual begin in 2024: Explaining tight finish's lack of involvement in Chiefs' passing assault

By the primary two weeks of the season, Travis Kelce has been comparatively uninvolved within the Kansas City Chiefs offense. 

Kelce has simply 4 catches for 39 yards on seven targets up to now this season, and in Week 2 had his first recreation with one catch or fewer since 2018. (He did even have a protracted catch negated by penalty.) The final time the longer term Corridor of Famer had three or fewer catches in back-to-back video games got here in 2021, however he at the very least totaled 12 targets in these two contests — one in all which was a 48-9 win the place he sat out a lot of the fourth quarter. 

It is early, clearly, however Kelce’s two catches and 19.5 yards per recreation, 57.1% catch fee, 9.8 yards per reception, 5.6 yards per goal and 42.9% success fee would all clearly mark profession lows if sustained via the remainder of the season.

Given his large position within the Chiefs offense over the past decade-plus, it is value analyzing what precisely has occurred up to now, and what we’d anticipate to occur over the remainder of the yr. 

One factor that is fascinating to notice is that Kelce has performed 89% and 91% of Kansas Metropolis’s offensive snaps within the first two video games of the season. By the use of perspective, take into account that he did not high an 80% snap fee till Week 8 of final season, hit 80% in back-to-back weeks solely in Weeks 13 and 14, after which 16 and 17, and solely topped 90% in Week 11 in opposition to the Eagles. How a lot of this is because of the truth that the Chiefs have been enjoying on a protracted break in every of their first two video games, I suppose we’ll discover out as they get right into a extra common relaxation schedule. 

Given these snap charges, although, you’ll anticipate Kelce to be far more concerned within the proceedings than he has been. However Kelce has been focused on solely seven of his 53 routes, in accordance with Tru Media. That 13.2% targets-per-route-run fee can be by far the bottom of his profession. In truth, he is by no means even been under 21.7% in any of his earlier 10 seasons. So, what’s behind that low goal fee? 

We’ve got to start out along with his lack of involvement within the designed portion of the passing recreation. Kelce has been on the sphere for 12 display passes this season, however none of them has gone to him. Contemplate that final yr, he was on the sphere for 75 screens, and 16 of them have been thrown his approach. In different phrases, he was the supposed goal on 21.3% of the screens for which he was on the sphere. In 2022, he was thrown 14 of 62 screens. That is 22.6%. You get the thought. Kelce simply has not been a part of the display recreation up to now this season in the identical approach he has been within the latest previous. 

Nevertheless it’s additionally not simply concerning the screens. There have been eight different designed goal performs (run-pass choices, rub routes, jet sweeps, swing passes) on Kelce’s remaining 43 routes, solely two of which have been supposed for Kelce and one in all which obtained blown up as a result of the rub route that was speculated to get him open obtained blown up by the defensive again and Patrick Mahomes needed to scramble as a substitute. (He was additionally much more huge open than Wanya Morris on the tackle-eligible play that resulted in Morris’ landing catch. Mahomes threw it to Morris as a result of it is a lot cooler to get the deal with a landing, clearly.) He is additionally been requested to chip-release on 4 routes, solely one in all which resulted in a goal. 

A few of why Kelce has been focused much less usually is the truth that there’s lastly a large receiver, for the primary time because the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, who’s worthy of being a high possibility for Mahomes. As soon as Rashee Rice entered the beginning lineup on a full-time foundation towards the tip of final season, he exploded with 43 catches for 518 yards and three touchdowns throughout a six-game span, then picked up 26 grabs for 262 yards and a rating in Kansas Metropolis’s 4 playoff video games. 

He is stored proper on trucking this season, with seven catches for 103 yards within the season opener and 5 grabs for 75 yards and a landing in Week 2. He is been the supposed goal on 15 of Mahomes’ 53 cross makes an attempt — a 28.3% goal share that’s increased than any Kelce has posted in his profession. Rice can be sixth within the NFL with a 3.56 yards per route run common, by way of Tru Media, out of the 181 gamers who’ve run 25 routes or extra. His emergence makes for a a lot completely different scenario within the passing recreation than the one the Chiefs have had over the past two years. 

Past the relative lack of targets in contrast with what he is performed up to now, there’s additionally the difficulty of what has occurred when Kelce has gotten the ball. He and Mahomes have related on simply one in all their patented scramble-drill passes up to now this season. It resulted in a giant acquire (23 yards), however that one play additionally accounts for 59% of his whole yardage this season. Even in case you added the catch negated by penalty, the 23-yarder would nonetheless account for practically 30% of his yardage whole. Kelce hasn’t made a lot hay after the catch on his few receptions, with simply 2.5 yards after catch per reception. That is lower than half of each his profession common (5.8) and his mark from final yr, when he performed injured for a lot of the season (2.5). 

Clearly, these numbers are all topic to small pattern measurement caveats. Kelce might simply have a blow-up recreation in opposition to the Falcons on Sunday evening, despite the fact that Atlanta has allowed simply 98 receiving yards to tight ends via two video games. We all know that Mahomes and Kelce have a thoughts meld not like every other within the NFL, and we all know that Andy Reid loves nothing greater than getting Kelce concerned in inventive methods when the Chiefs get close to the tip zone. Provided that Kelce is now only a few weeks away from turning 35 years previous, although, it is value questioning if that is maybe the primary time we’re seeing him as a complementary passing-game goal, as a substitute of a focus.