Time For Red Sox To Switch Gears

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports Since winning their fourth World Series championship within 15 years – in 2018, to be precise – Boston Red Sox have enjoyed relative quiet. Since their victory, which came as part of an organizationwide sweep against Yankees or Astros for baseball supremacy; instead they appear more like gentle, pastoral retirees resting comfortably on an American Craftsman home’s porch or as though in an old lemonade commercial from 1980s.
At Independence Day 2022, Boston stood second in the AL East with third-best record in junior circuit baseball despite suffering four significant player injuries: Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock Michael Wacha and Rich Hill had fallen. Red Sox executives were well aware that trade deadlines present opportunities to strengthen playoff chances; yet their staff’s 6.30 ERA in July dropped them below.500 by the time of Eric Hosmer’s acquisition at this week’s trade deadline. At last year’s trade deadline, when Boston was only three-and-a-half games behind for an at-large wild card spot, they decided that day was unbearably hot, content to sip the last of their sweet tea as they watched and waited for fireflies at day’s end to appear. Now again Boston are in contention during trade season — just half-game ahead of Royals for one of two AL playoff spots — so now is their time to rise from their porch chairs and seize every opportunity that trade season presents them!
Red Sox ownership’s primary motivation to break their cautious rebuild cycle lies within their playoff probabilities; making a few strategic trades will increase playoff odds in Boston more quickly than with most teams, especially since teams nearing playoff eligibility can reap greater advantages from adding talent; which the Red Sox currently do. They may benefit from not needing to win as many games this season to reach the postseason, compared to prior campaigns. ZiPS projects that the average winner of AL Wild Card position this season will win 85.5 games – giving Red Sox 39-37 record and still having a 50% shot at being selected as AL wild card team!
To illustrate, I calculated the ZiPS playoff probability for every team after Thursday’s games and compared that figure with that of adding two wins incrementally onto every bottom line over time.

ZiPS Playoff Probability (7/5)

Team Gained Two Wins desfasoering Change by Percentage Points.

Houston 49.2% 55.5% 40.6/14.2 14.1 St Louis 42.5% 55.5% 13.0 * Arizona 33.7% 49.9%12.6 * Kansas City 35%48,9% 13.2 * Houston49,2%55.8/89% 14.4* SFO 46,0% 32.6/20 12.8/20 * Houston (AL) 53.33/54/54%/58 (87) 95 7 88% 80 (NL 88 108%), 85.8%, 90 (AL), Cleveland-9574/4 (AL 98 1) New York(AL), 41.8% 53 3 33%; 49,2 78%-73 77%/73 77%=81 67% of that (73 76), with Cincinnati 20.8% 31 55% 10.7 Sfint Minneapolis- 81 77%-83 67% whilst Tampa Bay 19% 27 77% from 27 7th Street with 83% of these 83% 14.7% 14.7% 8.6%=9.8, Atlanta-744%/83 67% = 9.8, Atlanta- 74 41% +981 = 8.2/8.1 @2.9 New York(NL),957%+981=4.9/5.4=2.9 Los Angeles-947% 99,5 99,5 (99.5=1.9/1050=1)=19 4,4=95 7/88% =98 4957%/97+1=99 596 33% 96.569 95.49% =963% = 95 7/8 7th)= 95 7th. 1.0 874 4th/99 2nd Philadelphia = 99 2%99 7/7 =2.4 | Los Los Los LA 95 7= 95 13%992 =2.5 Denver =0 0.0%=0.9/2.8 =957=2.5 New York(A), 957%=4.5 =1.9 7 =1=2.4 17.5=94/7=2.67= 97.3=4.8 =2.495 687 99 1/7 =99 2 577=2.8 (AL =2.599 57% for 33.4 = 2.75=2.82.5 =1.4 87%981%98 1 97%=9.5 =96 33.3 =3 7 7 171% @97 17% 997% =981% =2.8 9 7 7. 7 75 967 =9.5 69% 95 775= 976= 967= 96 =9.57 974= 95 70 =98 19 7==4:9) 95 7 79567=96 =981% 99 7 =96 3 =98=2.8 1=4.599 7=242.4 24) > 22.5 =2.5 2 =2.4 495=2.6=2.875=2.4 =2.6=2.488=2.41.495 4=24 =2.8 =1. 2.1 24=2.4 1.5=2.4 2.5=2.1 24 1=2.4 2.5 4 =2.9=2.4 2981%=2.4 1 =98 1.7% 9597=9.58==2.8 1=96= 9 1=2.81% 991%= 99 2 =993%, which=96= 9 7= 976= 977 997% 95/7 = 95/7 = 9577= 977= 974= 97%= 977= 957%, 9577= 9 7 977 997% =971%=9.5=9.5 975=99 2=5 11= 97%= 24 1=94= 2.4 =2.8 2.54=1.8 = 2.5 985=2.42.4 1.1%=2.51%…1.2 7 1= 24.991% 244%.1% 24 1981%=0.9 11.81=24= 2.4 1=2.4 1.7==2.8 4 =981%==2.4 1 = 24 1=2.8 81%= 9 796=2.8 24 1=2.4 1.5
As is evident by this analysis, Red Sox benefit significantly by adding two wins of value. Although this won’t guarantee them playoff berth, but just doing small improvements along the margin can have great payoff. Furthermore, they’re positioned well to take an aggressive stance at the deadline – they also possess the capabilities. Our last update last year ranked Red Sox farm system as second overall in baseball; Keith Law ranked it eighth at The Athletic; ZiPS also gave them high rankings. Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America were more critical, ranking Boston’s farm system at No. 13. But no matter which version you believe in, Boston boasts at least an above-average farm system — possibly among the very best — which should enable it to build its roster without jeopardizing future success.
Prospects aren’t the only means by which Red Sox teams acquire talent; you can buy talent with prospects as well as money; however, one key strategy employed by Boston to conserve its prospects involves eating other teams’ contracts in order to conserve prospects. Boston Red Sox management have recently made efforts to reduce spending; during their five season history they only crossed over into luxury tax territory once, in 2022 – ranking sixth overall for spending. All this evidence supports Boston not exceeding the CBT threshold this season even if they take on larger contracts to retain top prospects. No worries; though: this year the Red Sox are about $19 million below their taxline – though any contract they sign would likely cost closer to $40 million than originally projected due to prorationing for remaining seasons. At face value, this means the Sox could afford any available player while remaining within their threshold budget. Boston will have even greater flexibility next season if they desire a player that could help long-term, as they currently stand $100 million below the $241 million tax line for 2025. Of their four eligible for arbitration this winter, three will likely seek small arbitration amounts while Reese McGuire could potentially become non-tender candidate.
Should the Red Sox trade one of their top two prospects, Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer, for two months of an inferior starting pitcher? Absolutely not; but more teams may enter league doormat status and enter seller territory as April progresses. The Rays have proven willing to trade talent on multiple occasions; so may be Blue Jays who possess numerous talented players under contract for more than this season’s end. Two teams that began this season with high hopes – Cubs and Rangers – may need to retool as the playoff math becomes too treacherous, though many interesting players could become available under certain conditions. Though the Rockies claim they won’t trade Ryan McMahon, his outstanding season and considerable second base experience make him attractive trade options. Bo Bichette could make Fenway his playground with his line drive swing and Fenway is known for producing offensive power players; and although White Sox don’t boast much talent Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde are valuable pieces that any contending club should acquire as reinforcements.
Though not strictly required by my job description, I find great pleasure in keeping an eye on how passionate fans perceive their favorite teams. You might spot me lurking on team subreddits or blogs from time to time or joining random internet discussions! An additional reason is my tendency for engaging in arguments. One of my favorite activities at games is eschewing press box coverage entirely and engaging directly with fans who support opposing teams by wandering freely between stands to talk baseball with fans – particularly ones cheering against my beloved Rangers! After the Mookie Betts trade, there was much unhappiness; however, now there appears to be less anger against ownership but more disengagement with the organization compared with before. I suspect this sort of disenchantment might prove more challenging to change than anger would.
Imagine how disinterested fans would become if, yet again, Red Sox players seemed disengaged at any thought of contention? Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein suggested in 2021, when making their only big acquisition at the deadline – Kyle Schwarber – that such trade should become part of an annual routine in Boston and other large market clubs such as his. Arguably, being aggressive carries risks and does not guarantee success – just ask the Padres – but doing nothing comes with its own set of dangers; fans won’t tolerate retooling for very long before demanding action is taken to restore order on the field. At some point, fans expect their team to rage against its death; fans tend to support an organization which fights hard but loses than one that remains passive and does nothing at all; organizational indifference leads directly to fan indifference.