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Three major takeaways from an NBA General Manager survey. Wembanyama leads in three key aspects.

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October 8, 2024

Since 1993, the NBA has conducted preseason polls among each general manager of its 30 franchises to gauge their reactions on various league issues – some straightforward like championship and MVP picks; other questions involve more complex topics, like franchise expansion. Others were more subjective; such as who the best international player who’s currently not part of the NBA is.The answers tend to be predictable – Boston Celtics being their championship favorite team and all. They recently concluded a season that saw them win 64 games and post a fourth-best net rating ever seen in NBA history. Many would agree with Nikola Jokic being named NBA Passer-of-the-Year or Erik Spoelstra being honored as Coach-of-Year; yet every season there are several answers or voting margins which stand out. So let’s dive in the 2024 NBA General Manager survey and take a deeper dive. Boston was always expected to claim victory; here, though, what interests us is how they dominated in terms of voting margin. The Celtics earned 83% of votes cast, marking their third-highest mark ever achieved in this poll, behind only Stephen Curry-Kevin Durant-led Warriors from 2017-18 (93% of votes) and 2018-19 (87%). This means more general managers have chosen Boston this season than they ever have a team led by LeBron James, Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan in any previous campaign. Most sports books estimate +320 odds as being Boston’s chance at victory — far lower than its 83% vote share here!
Context must first be established: the general managers were not asked to assign a percentage likelihood that any specific team, like Boston or any others would win the championship; rather they were allowed one vote each and most chose what was easiest for themselves – that’s typically how GMs vote. The NBA has conducted 23 polls to select their champion, with 83% selecting Boston over Denver last season due to a tie. Such strong consensuses are not commonplace and warrant further attention from us all. Boston Celtics fans don’t just look upon them as reigning champs; their future seems bright with potential. Victor Wembanyama had long been touted by general managers as someone they would consider starting an NBA franchise with; sooner rather than later his time has arrived! The Wemby Era will arrive faster than we could have anticipated! Last season’s vote put Wembanyama second at 23% behind only reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic; expectations were sky high after that performance but Wembanyama managed to surpass even them and win this contest with 77% of votes cast! That record still has yet to be broken however! Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo each earned this feat, while LeBron James also reached an overwhelming vote share during three separate NBA campaigns; though James didn’t achieve such an extraordinary score until after having already won an MVP award for three campaigns. Antetokounmpo made his mark after winning MVP for the first time; Davis didn’t reach 77% until after four seasons; we have seen two-year players such as Karl-Anthony Towns win this vote but only at 48%, Wembanyama has already proven himself more desirable than all current MVP and champion players!
What makes Wembanyama such an obvious pick here? Well, to begin with: the General Managers already voted him the top defensive player in the NBA (albeit at only 40% of votes cast) — something no other Spurs legend, Tim Duncan (Wembanyama’s predecessor), ever did. At 20, Wembanyama is by far the youngest player ever to achieve such status; Kawhi Leonard and Dwight Howard had both achieved it at 24. It’s easy to draw conclusions: Wembanyama can’t legally drink yet yet is already one of the NBA’s finest defensive players. After the All-Star break, he averaged 23.5 points, 12 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game while cost-controlled by rookie deals for three seasons – all this against an unprecedented cap crunch in league history! Yet voters still gave him 77% support; 23% denied him. This category will remain Wembanyama’s as long as he remains healthy enough to claim it.Front offices seek rule changes in an unsurprising areaThe focal point of 2024 offseason has been new roster building restrictions mandated by league aprons, creating challenges to player recruitment. Unsurprisingly, when asked which rule they’d most like to alter if given the chance, 20% of GMs pointed directly to the Collective Bargaining Agreement as something they want changed if possible. Votes were quite diverse. Technically, teams did not vote directly for any rule under “Roster Construction – Apron Rules/Trade Math Too Restrictive or Should Be Indexed to Team Market”, though none of their executives appear specifically discontent with any specific aspect of this system. Instead, it appears as though teams find all aspects troubling.
Now, that doesn’t render the new Collective Bargaining Agreement inaccessible; Knicks simply found ways around it by trading for Karl-Anthony Towns reportedly unsettling the league office in doing so. Minimum salaries cannot now be combined, so to comply with league guidelines the Knicks awarded their three newcomers who signed-and-traded to Charlotte an increase in salary that goes above minimum level to make this deal legal. There may still be loopholes for teams if they investigate in detail enough, yet there is no doubt about the newfound challenges this Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) presents. Charlotte had no choice but to participate in that trade since Knicks and Timberwolves could not legally exchange players, according to NBA apron rules. Any team that absorbs more money in a trade than they send out automatically faces hard caps at the first apron; both teams were already above this threshold, so in order to circumvent that restriction in two-team trade they’d need contracts that exactly matched up in terms of dollars being sent out and received; something neither team had the flexibility for. Charlotte was brought in to deal with a hard cap the Knicks and Timberwolves couldn’t afford, suggesting this rule may require revision. Even if the NBA wishes to limit expensive teams’ trade options, mandating that a third team or dollar-for-dollar match be included seems excessive. A compromise might include adding in either a 5% allowance or set dollar figure allowance eventually; as this strategy will encourage trading overall; good for business as it drives interest in sports like Knicks did and front offices can’t always find workarounds like they have with Knicks front offices; fans have long wanted changes; it appears as though basketball’s elite minds do too!
Since we all live together under one roof and share facilities, it only seems natural for people who share that view to share resources among themselves and build networks to support each other through an exchange of goods or services. But you need not fear when there are so many great products like that available – you just have to know where and when.

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