Polling shows that three out of ten Arizona voters who supported an abortion rights ballot measure also supported Donald Trump in November’s election. When polling was completed for Arizona State University’s polling place on Tuesday in Phoenix, Ariz, three out of ten voters who also supported such ballot initiatives also cast votes for Trump – both polls conducted separately revealed these findings. Matt York/AP
Voters in Arizona, Missouri and Nevada cast ballots Tuesday to advance abortion rights protections into their state constitutions while Donald Trump looked likely to carry all three states for victory in his presidential bid. Democrats had expected ballot initiatives on abortion rights would enhance Kamala Harris’ prospects; instead data collected through VoteCast by The Associated Press and partners such as KFF revealed that roughly three in ten of those supporting such measures also cast votes for Trump in those three states.
“Many voters who support abortion rights still chose Donald Trump,” according to Liz Hamel, Director of Public Opinion and Survey Research for KFF (a health information nonprofit comprising KFF Health News), has observed.
VoteCast, conducted between Oct 28 and Nov 5, is intended to offer “an accurate picture” of who voted and why, per The Associated Press (AP). According to VoteCast results, voters who support abortion rights but favored Donald Trump over Harris for President held true in all 10 states with ballot measures protecting abortion rights on their ballots.
About one in four of those polled voters named abortion as their top vote-deciding issue, although that number was even higher among Democrats, young women, Black adults and Hispanic adults. On Tuesday, seven out of the eight states that held abortion rights referendums passed their referenda; Missouri and Arizona saw state bans overturn. Vice President Harris made reproductive rights the centerpiece of her election campaign; however, VoteCast results demonstrate otherwise; they show economic concerns to be the key issue at play during this election cycle. Tuesday was the first presidential election held after Roe v. Wade was overturned by a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, during President Donald Trump’s first term he nominated three Justices who later joined in voting to eliminate women’s constitutional right to abortion care in 2022 rulings. Mike Islami, 20, cast his vote for Trump while living and studying full time at Madison Wisconsin campus and said abortion rights was in his mind while casting ballot.
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“I don’t anticipate much change” with regard to abortion access during Donald Trump’s second term, said Dr. Greenwald. He indicated that Trump plans on leaving it up to individual states to determine their priorities on abortion access and decide for themselves how important the issue was. Survey results indicated that abortion was just as significant a factor for voters regardless of whether abortion measures appeared on ballots in their states as it was elsewhere. According to survey results, when voters cast ballots they were more driven by economic concerns relating to filling gas tanks, housing costs and food. Donald Trump won these voters just as effectively in previously red states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than reliably conservative ones such as Mississippi or Wisconsin. Glen Bolger, a Republican campaign strategist, observed that the results of 2022 showed how more successful Republican campaigns can be when discussing topics other than abortion. Bolger suggested that Trump voters who support abortion rights amendments might have taken him at his word and relied upon him not supporting any national ban for abortion, following what Bolger called an election-year statement he issued about such. Donald Trump noted that those voting for him might have thought, when casting their ballot for him, “Let’s elect him so we can manage costs associated with living expenses, health care expenses, gas prices and everything else”. VoteCast surveys demonstrated a trend of greater female support for abortion ballot initiatives among female voters: 72% in Nevada, 69% in Arizona and 62% in Missouri voted yes on abortion measures on their ballot. Erica Wallace of Miami cast her vote for Harris as she supported an abortion rights ballot measure which fell just shy of meeting 60% threshold required to amend state constitution. “You want equal treatment as an adult woman,” noted Wallace, an executive secretary from Miami who works and lives life to its fullest. Wallace noted how Florida’s ban criminalizing abortion care prior to many women realizing they’re pregnant creates unequal treatment of female citizens.
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“I pay my taxes and live well,” she stated, and added, “Like any good citizen should.” Men tended to vote against protecting abortion rights more often; 67% in Nevada, 64% in Arizona and 55% in Missouri supported pro-choice ballot initiatives relating to reproductive healthcare rights ballot initiatives. VoteCast survey results indicated that overall voters believed Harris to be better equipped at handling health care matters – an outcome consistent with Hamel’s observation that “Democrats traditionally hold an advantage on health care”. Still, Donald Trump trumped Harris among more than half of voters who expressed strong concerns over health care costs. Family premiums for employer-sponsored health plans rose 7 per cent a year on average over 2024-2025 according to KFF’s 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey, reaching an average annual premium of $25572. On average, workers contribute $6,296 annually towards family health coverage costs. Bolger notes how high health-care costs have an adverse impact on society as a whole with no viable solution being proposed to curb them; it has left voters particularly frustrated. Florence Robbins in Madison Wisconsin and Denise Hruby in Miami contributed their expertise for this report from KFF Health News: one of its core operating programs at KFF.