These shot blockers and heavy hitters can add consistency to your lineup

They do not make shot blockers like they used to.

In 2014-15, Kris Russell of the Calgary Flames rode his bodily play to 147.6 fantasy factors from hits and blocked pictures alone. He averaged 1.87 fantasy factors per sport (FPPG) from solely throwing checks and getting in entrance of pucks. All instructed, he completed with 203.7 fantasy factors, rating third general amongst skaters for the season.

It is a wild complete to think about; excited about the concept that Russell’s bodily fantasy classes accounted for a similar charge of fantasy factors as Dylan Strome or Jordan Kyrou gave us final season general, which positioned them mid-80s for rating amongst skaters.

However the opening to this text was a misdirection, as a result of the very fact is that we live within the golden age of bodily play. We could not get particular person monsters like Russell or Dan Girardi, who each have six separate seasons among the many 100 gamers since 2009-10 which have earned no less than 100 fantasy factors from hits and blocked pictures (let’s shorten that to FPHBS from right here on in); However final yr accounted for probably the most gamers from a single season amongst that very same high 100. There have been 15 gamers in 2023-24 that posted greater than 100 factors from FPHBS alone.

100 defensemen recorded no less than 100 FPHBS during the last 15 years, together with 15 from final season listed on the facet right here. Unsurprisingly, each single one of many 15 gamers completed among the many high 250 skaters in fantasy factors final season. A few of them used the FPHBS as a leaping level to gas improbable fantasy returns: Weegar was thirteenth general, Seider was twenty third, Carlson was twenty ninth and Parayko was tied for fortieth.

So what state of affairs spurs this type of manufacturing with FPHBS?

Nicely, being on the blue line is the primary prerequisite.

(We’ll take care of forwards within the second half of this text, after we convey pictures on objective into the combo.)

Ice time helps. Ten of the 15 gamers that topped 100 FPHBS final season ranked among the many high 100 in ice time per sport. Being a penalty-killer is vital, as 11 of the 15 had been among the many high 100 in shorthanded time on ice per sport. Each these components observe logically: the extra you’re on the ice, the extra you can also make performs; and, when on the kill, job No. 1 is to dam pucks from attending to the online.

The trick in shallower and even medium-sized fantasy leagues shouldn’t be essentially to prognosticate which gamers will emerge as new bodily threats, however relatively to remember that such gamers have worth and are underappreciated. Of the 15 gamers already talked about, eight can be found in no less than 30% of ESPN leagues.

Now, in case you do play in a deeper format, or similar to being forward of the competitors, it is value contemplating among the defenders who could possibly be the subsequent large factor for FPHBS. We’re searching for gamers obtainable in nearly each ESPN league (obtainable in 97% or extra), ranked low in ice time per sport, however have excessive FPHBS charge stats (taking a look at FPHBS per 60).

Nick Seeler, Philadelphia Flyers 16:56 per sport final season with 5.77 FPHBS per 60 minutes: If Seeler can keep on the second pairing and if Jamie Drysdale earns extra ice time as nicely, Seeler might bump nearer to the 20 minutes per sport many second-pairing defenders get (the third and fourth ranked defenders in complete ice time for every staff final season collectively averaged 19:26 per sport). With an additional 90 seconds per sport, Seeler might push into must-start territory.

Ilya Lyubushkin, Dallas Stars 17:07 per sport final season with 4.81 FPHBS per 60 minutes: It is the identical story right here, however with somewhat extra competitors. If Lyubushkin can earn a task on the second pair, he might edge his ice time up. However he may not get the huge penalty-killing time he earned final season. His 2:42 per sport shorthanded was greater than the common for the highest penalty-killing pairs throughout the league (2:40).

Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ottawa Senators 15:41 per sport final season with 4.47 FPHBS per 60 minutes: With some sneaky-good fantasy charges final season, Bernard-Docker would want extra ice time to actually get into the fantasy combine. Sadly, he in all probability is not a top-four D on the Sens, even with Erik Brannstrom out the door. The saving grace right here could possibly be the penalty kill, the place he solely averaged 1:27 final season (second-pairing defenders averaged 1:53 final season). If the Sens wish to restrict Jake Sanderson‘s general ice time, maybe Bernard-Docker strikes up the shorthanded depth chart.

Kevin Bahl, Calgary Flames 17:23 per sport final season with 2.8 FPHBS per 60 minutes: Danil Miromanov and Jake Bean are removed from locks for the Calgary Flames high pairings. There’s a possibility for the Flames haul within the Jacob Markstrom deal to indicate his value. His FPHBS charges weren’t as excessive as some others, however three extra minutes per sport on the second pairing would go a great distance.

Simon Edvinsson, Detroit Red Wings 18:15 per sport final season with 3.10 FPHBS per 60 minutes: If all goes as deliberate for Edvinsson, 20 minutes per sport must be no downside. He might even find yourself on the highest penalty-killing unit if he’s as prepared as he regarded in restricted play final season (16 video games).

Photographs fired

In its fundamental obtainable knowledge, the NHL would not have “shot makes an attempt blocked” till the 2022-23 season. Which means we now have two seasons of accessible knowledge to take a look at general shot try proportion, which might be the full variety of tried pictures by a participant that find yourself turning into an precise shot on objective.

Photographs on objective should not solely nice for fantasy hockey as a result of they’re inherently value 0.1 factors, but in addition as a result of they’re, naturally, a prerequisite for a objective. A person’s shot makes an attempt would embody the sum of all of their pictures on objective, objectives, missed pictures (which the NHL has tracked for some time) and shot makes an attempt blocked. A participant’s shot try proportion can be what number of of these makes an attempt had been profitable (shot on objective or objective) in opposition to the general complete.

The typical shot try proportion for the 196 forwards with no less than 200 shot makes an attempt in every of the previous two seasons is 51.3% of pictures making it on objective. For defensemen, the common is 43.9% for the 76 with no less than 200 shot makes an attempt in every of the previous two seasons. That is smart, as a shot from the blue line has a greater probability of lacking or being blocked than a shot from nearer to the online.

And this positively tracks among the many forwards, too, because the 34 gamers with a shot try proportion larger than 60% consists of lots of the high 10 gamers listed by the NHL’s new EDGE statistics because the leaders in high-danger pictures on objective. Joel Eriksson-Ek (64.5%), Brady Tkachuk (64.2%), Zach Hyman (61.7%), Anders Lee (61.4%), John Tavares (60.2%) and Matthew Tkachuk (60.1%) make up six of the highest 10 from final season in high-danger pictures, in keeping with EDGE, and Connor McDavid (62.8%) was among the many EDGE’s high 10 from 2022-23.

Of these 196 forwards in our knowledge with no less than 200 shot makes an attempt in each of the previous two seasons, 16 of them had a drop of their objective complete of no less than six objectives. Each single one in every of them had no less than a 1.6% drop of their shot makes an attempt proportion, with many ranging nearer to a 5% drop.

Conversely, 14 gamers had a rise of no less than six objectives, however for them we get a blended bag of how their shot try proportion modified. It ranges from Trevor Moore including eight objectives, however having his shot makes an attempt proportion drop by -7.7%, to Kyle Palmieri, who added 9 objectives and elevated his shot makes an attempt proportion by 5%. Anecdotally, Moore began taking far more shot makes an attempt (5.7 per sport, in comparison with 4.6), whereas Palmieri began taking them from in nearer (1.04 high-danger pictures per sport final season in comparison with 0.76 in 2022-23, per EDGE).

What can we do with this data?

My first intuition is to hunt gamers that skilled a drop in shot makes an attempt proportion which can be in a state of affairs the place they may get extra success this season. That offers us gamers with a observe file of making an attempt to get plenty of pucks on the web, who did not have as a lot success final season as they did in 2022-23. Maybe they’ll rebound this coming marketing campaign. Extra pucks efficiently on the web, means extra probabilities for fantasy factors.

Listed below are some cherry-picked gamers that confirmed a dip in what number of of their shot makes an attempt had been making it on objective final season:

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Teuvo Teravainen, Chicago Blackhawks: -11.7 change in shot makes an attempt proportion
Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers: -11.3 change
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seattle Kraken: -10.9 change
Philipp Kurashev, Chicago Blackhawks: -10.3 change
Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks: -10.0 change
Kevin Fiala, Los Angeles Kings: -8.8 change
Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks: -8.3 change
Evan Rodrigues, Florida Panthers: -8.0 change
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers: -7.8 change
Yegor Sharangovich, Calgary Flames: -7.8 change
Andrew Mangiapane, Washington Capitals: -7.8 change
Trevor Moore, Los Angeles Kings: -7.7 change
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers: -7.7 change
Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers: -7.6 change
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins: -7.5 change
Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames: -7.2 change
Adam Henrique, Edmonton Oilers: -7.0 change
Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild: -7.0 change

Of this group, I might see Teravainen taking up a special function this season if he lucks out with an project alongside Connor Bedard. Mangiapane might need a flip of fortune if he can do the identical alongside Alex Ovechkin. Fiala’s fates could possibly be altered if he finds a groove with Quinton Byfield as his new full-time middle.

Whereas I am not so certain I am offered on the inverse logic being inherently as attention-grabbing, listed below are the leaders that noticed a spike of their shot makes an attempt proportion:

Brock Nelson, New York Islanders: 6.3 change in shot makes an attempt proportion
Kyle Palmieri, New York Islanders: 5.0 change
Gabriel Vilardi, Winnipeg Jets: 4.9 change
James van Riemsdyk, Columbus Blue Jackets: 4.0 change
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens: 3.7 change
Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders: 3.2 change
Jack Roslovic, Carolina Hurricanes: 3.1 change
Kirill Marchenko, Columbus Blue Jackets: 2.7 change
Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators: 2.5 change
Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights: 2.4 change
Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins: 2.3 change
Kevin Hayes, Pittsburgh Penguins: 2.3 change
Joel Farabee, Philadelphia Flyers: 2.2 change
David Perron, Ottawa Senators: 2.2 change

It appears the Islanders modified their collective focus final season to start out ensuring pucks had been on track. Eichel’s shot accuracy additionally will get highlighted right here, as he did not take as many from in shut as among the different leaders in shot try proportion, but he leads all the forwards that took no less than 200 makes an attempt previously two seasons (besides Kings bottom-sixer Trevor Lewis) in the case of general proportion (64.9%).

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