The Reds' Surprisingly Tepid Offense

The Reds went into the yr with loads of optimism. Their younger core had surprisingly threatened for a playoff berth and completed above .500 in 2023. The entrance workplace adopted up by committing greater than $100MM — together with practically $62MM in 2024 salaries alone — on the free agent market. Cincinnati was a stylish option to take what regarded like a large open NL Central (and would’ve been my choose to win the division earlier than a pair key Spring Coaching accidents).

Whereas it is too quickly to write down them off totally, the Reds have not come near the heightened expectations via the season’s first two months. They’re eight video games under .500 and above solely the Marlins and Rockies within the Nationwide League. A lineup loaded with proficient younger hitters ought to drive this workforce to success. Due to a mixture of damage and a handful of key gamers underperforming, they’ve as a substitute had one of many worst offenses within the majors.

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Coming into play Wednesday, Cincinnati ranks twenty first in runs scored. That is alarming sufficient for a workforce that performs in one of many recreation’s most favorable hitter’s parks. Their charge manufacturing is even worse. The Reds are final in workforce batting common (.216). They’re above solely the White Sox and Marlins in on-base proportion (.294). They’re additionally narrowly forward of the Nationals and Pirates by way of slugging output (.354).

On a per plate look foundation, the Reds are hitting like a rebuilding workforce. They’ve at the very least been fairly productive after they’ve gotten runners in scoring place, so their general scoring output is not a catastrophe, however this workforce has much more offensive expertise than any of Chicago, Miami, Washington and Pittsburgh do.

The issues are significantly putting when trying across the infield. There has lengthy been commerce hypothesis concerning the Reds’ infield surplus. The entrance workplace by no means appeared to deal with it as such. Not solely did they not commerce away any infielders, they doubled down by signing Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal.

The infield ought to be a power. They’re hitting .216/.290/.348, higher manufacturing solely than the White Sox and Purple Sox have obtained. That is regardless of a breakout from second-year star Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. Between first, second and third base, no workforce has gotten lower than the Reds’ .200/.268/.298 slash over 581 plate appearances.

A few of that’s past Cincinnati’s management. Matt McLain was one of many largest causes for optimism after his .290/.357/.507 displaying as a rookie. He went down with a labrum tear in his left shoulder throughout Spring Coaching and required surgical procedure that is prone to maintain him out into August. Noelvi Marte was the presumptive starter at third base getting into camp. He examined constructive for a performance-enhancing substance and was suspended for half the season. Any workforce would endure from shedding two of its most proficient infielders weeks earlier than Opening Day.

Nonetheless, the Reds ought to’ve been comparatively well-positioned to climate these losses. Candelario was a productive on a regular basis third baseman a yr in the past. Jonathan India hasn’t grow to be the participant some anticipated after his 2021 Rookie of the Yr win, however he is a stable fill-in possibility for a workforce that misplaced its beginning second baseman. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, pushed into the on a regular basis first base function with Candelario shifting throughout the diamond, turned in a .270/.338/.477 slash as a rookie.

An infield of Encarnacion-Strand, India, De La Cruz and Candelario nonetheless regarded affordable. Cincinnati acquired Santiago Espinal as a glove-first utility piece after shedding McLain and Marte. But they’ve gotten basically nothing out of anybody in that group past De La Cruz.

Encarnacion-Strand was one of many worst hitters in MLB (.190/.220/.293 in 123 plate appearances) earlier than being identified with a fracture in his proper hand that’ll maintain him out into the center of June. India (.216/.328/.291) has the worst numbers of his profession. Candelario (.216/.284/.379) is hitting on the stage that received him non-tendered in 2022 versus the effectively above-average clip he confirmed within the different three of the previous 4 seasons. Espinal was by no means going to offer a lot offensively, however his .194/.248/.278 line is actually unplayable. The Reds signed first baseman Mike Ford to a serious league deal after shedding Encarnacion-Strand to the injured checklist. He is off to a .146/.163/.250 begin in 13 video games after an enormous month in Triple-A.

It is a comparable story within the outfield, although that all the time felt a bit extra tenuous. Cincinnati has misplaced underrated middle fielder TJ Friedl to a pair of accidents, limiting him to 6 video games. The fill-in middle area tandem of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild has basically performed at substitute stage.

Left fielder Spencer Steer has turned in common numbers, nowhere close to as productive as he was in 2023. Jake Fraley is a wonderful however unexciting possibility in proper area. The Reds most likely ought to’ve introduced in a rotational right-handed outfield bat over the offseason, however that is a reasonably minor situation in comparison with the underperformances of just about everybody within the lineup. De La Cruz and catcher Tyler Stephenson are the one sources of constant offense.

That is organising deadline choices for GM Nick Krall and his employees. There are causes for the entrance workplace to imagine the workforce can compete for a playoff spot. At the very least one Wild Card spot within the Nationwide League appears to be like prefer it’ll fall to a workforce that is marginally higher than .500. Marte will probably be again for the second half (although he’d be ineligible for the postseason due to the failed PED check). It is troublesome to rely on McLain hitting ultimately yr’s stage coming off shoulder surgical procedure, nevertheless it’s not out of the query that he gives a big increase within the last six weeks of the season.

The beginning pitching has been stable. Cincinnati’s aid group stays a priority, however that is one of many simpler areas to deal with on the deadline. There’s nonetheless a path to purchasing. They may use a nook outfield/first base pickup — Brent Rooker appears to be like like a robust match, as one instance — and may most likely improve over Espinal on the bench.

There’s not a ton to unload if issues go in the wrong way. They’re definitely not going to blow it up and dangle key younger gamers like McLain, Steer, Nick Lodolo, and so on. There’d most likely be renewed hypothesis about making an attempt to maneuver India, who will make $5MM in 2025. Frankie Montas would very seemingly go as an impending free agent starter. They’d get calls on Stephenson, however he is controllable by way of arbitration for 2 seasons past this one.

Cincinnati ought to take that purchaser/vendor resolution proper as much as the deadline. They are not going to maneuver notable gamers in Could, because the Marlins did a pair weeks in the past. If they do not cease hitting just like the Marlins quickly, they don’t seem to be going to have a lot of a selection come July.

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