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When the Falcons opened the season with a home loss to the Justin Fields-led Steelers, it felt just like the sky was falling. Doubly so when particulars of the loss got here out: Kirk Cousins took precisely one snap from below heart and did not execute a single play-action pretend. The offense was neutralized by Cousins’ limitations coming off Achilles surgery on his proper leg — he could not transfer a lot within the pocket, and in reality, moved much less within the pocket in that sport than he ever had in his profession, which was a big storyline popping out of Week 1.
Since that loss, the Falcons have been doing a number of issues: going below heart, hitting play-action fakes and successful! Atlanta is 2-1 of their previous three video games, with a last-second win against the Eagles, one other last-second win against the Saints this previous Sunday and practically one other against the Chiefs in Week 3. With one divisional win below their belt, and one other probably awaiting on Thursday night time in opposition to the Bucs (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), it feels just like the ship has been righted.
However even because the Falcons put sufficient factors on the board to win video games, their offense is much from mounted. They’re proper round league common in most measures of effectivity — anticipated factors added (EPA) per play, success fee, down set conversion and DVOA — however they’ve scored 5 offensive touchdowns on the season. Solely the Patriots, Dolphins and Broncos have fewer. Towards the Saints, they put up 26 factors with a defensive landing, a particular groups landing and 4 discipline objectives. Getting a divisional win is all the time good, however that wasn’t fairly — neither is it sustainable.
Why play-action issues for the Falcons
Activate the movie of that Saints sport, and you may see Cousins taking snaps from below heart and throwing with play-action — however not lots. In actual fact, after the Falcons in Week 2 in opposition to the Eagles walked out with a wholesome dose of under-center formations and play-action dropbacks, it is slowly been disappearing from the offense once more. Underneath-center fee is down in every of the previous two weeks, and snaps within the pistol have changed these appears. Play-action fee is down in every of the previous two weeks, too.
It looks like coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson sprinkled in sufficient of the basic Cousins stuff to get the media off their again. And now that the narrative is lifeless — Cousins can and is, technically, going below heart — they’re slowly phasing these options out of the offense once more.
That is as a result of Cousins nonetheless cannot do what’s required of an under-center quarterback — he is simply barely hanging in there on these snaps. Take this failed exchange with operating again Bijan Robinson in Week 2.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 2, 2024
Cousins is reverse-pivoting behind the middle, opening his physique to not the facet of the handoff however to the other. He has to wheel his complete physique round to fulfill Bijan on the mesh level and get the ball in his stomach. However Cousins barely will get any width along with his first two steps, and accordingly has to lunge in direction of Bijan (who can also be a bit bit broad on his path, for what it is value). There’s an excessive amount of area within the mesh level, and this ball is fumbled.
Cousins is absolutely laboring to get to the mesh level on broad runs proper now. He can do it, but it surely actually is not clear, and he usually does not come out of the mesh level along with his physique below management, which makes it tougher to instantly wheel him right into a boot (which the Falcons nonetheless haven’t performed: no rollouts but this season) or pop up right into a throwing place. Even on these meshes which might be executed properly, it takes Cousins an additional step to get again there, and the again is commonly idling for a beat to attend for the ball to get to him.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 2, 2024
For no matter motive, the Falcons haven’t but tried the best answer: pitching the ball. Many groups are more and more pitching the handoff on under-center runs, because it will get the ball to the again quicker, offering more room and time for the again to learn out the blocks and decide his path. The disadvantage of the pitch is that it hurts the efficacy of the play-action pretend as a result of the offense does not get that lengthy handoff motion that sucks linebackers in — however the Falcons aren’t operating play-action anyway, in order that would not price them an excessive amount of.
These hyper-specific operating sport machinations could really feel like minutiae, however they are not. The Falcons’ operating sport has really been stable from an effectivity standpoint (thirteenth in success fee and eleventh in EPA per rush), but it surely does not stack as much as the groups that the Falcons have been meant to emulate. Have a look at the highest of the dashing charts as measured by success fee and EPA, and also you see loads of groups that go below heart, condense the formation and run zone: the Rams, Saints, Lions and Vikings. Heck, even the Bengals have found out the operating sport. The Falcons measure up worse than all of them.
Every little thing is a wrestle for Cousins proper now
The truth that the operating sport is ok however unspectacular places further weight on the passing sport — and once more, we’re seeing limitations there from Cousins. He seemed a bit higher in Week 4 than he did in Week 1, however he nonetheless can not reset his ft within the pocket or drive the soccer. To win from the pocket — as Cousins did for the final a number of years in Minnesota — he should be capable of stand within the face of oncoming stress and hammer the soccer into tight home windows. Cousins simply doesn’t have that juice proper now.
Here’s an excellent instance in opposition to the Saints, a type of valuable under-center play-action dropbacks. Yank the linebackers down with the play-action pretend, get his eyes to the dig and drive that sucker. Watch how gentle Cousins is on his proper leg as he lands on the again foot of his dropback and steps into the throw. As a result of Cousins does not need to screw that foot into the bottom and generate any energy from it, he throws this with all arm and his weight falling over his entrance leg. Have a look at how laborious his physique leans over that entrance left leg on this throw; how that again leg comes swinging off the bottom.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 2, 2024
This isn’t how quarterbacks get velocity on a throw like this. Cousins is attempting so laborious to drive it that it falls into the bottom (which is not inherently dangerous, as that may assist Drake London shield the catch level) — but it surely simply does not arrive quick sufficient, which provides the Saints defensive backs loads of time to have an effect on the throw. Incomplete go.
Now, it is a actually tight window — and in reality, plenty of the home windows in Atlanta have been tight. Simply over 31% of Cousins’ throws past the road of scrimmage have been into tight home windows, as charted by NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — that is throws with the defender inside at the least one yard of the receiver. Solely Dak Prescott is hitting tight home windows at a better fee.
The tight window subject is twofold. As a result of Cousins is struggling to drive the soccer, he usually turns home windows that would have been wider into powerful throws, as a result of the ball is a tick late or delivered brief. Take the game-winning go interference from Paulson Adebo in protection in opposition to Darnell Mooney. With a greater throw, this is the game-winning landing thrown into an open window, however Cousins pulls Mooney again into the Saints defensive again, closing the window.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 2, 2024
The Falcons should scheme open their playmakers going ahead
The opposite half of the problem is in design — particularly, predictable design. The Saints have been driving on each route from the Falcons all through that sport. They have been ready on route breaks and baiting throws. Even when Cousins’ lack of velocity is giving them an additional beat to reach, no crew has seven go breakups from their DBs (because the Saints did on Sunday) until they know what’s coming down the pipe. Watch not simply how rapidly the New Orleans’ defenders get to the catch level, however how their our bodies and eyes are positioned because the routes develop on these go makes an attempt.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 2, 2024
Now, the Saints are a very aggressive protection below coach Dennis Allen, and so they play a ton of man protection, so inherently they are going to current tighter home windows downfield. The out-and-up to Mooney that led to a DPI was meant to reap the benefits of Adebo’s aggressive prediction of an out-breaking route, one thing the Saints corners have been anticipating all sport.
However over 4 weeks, Zac Robinson is struggling to get gamers open on the chalkboard. Robinson joined the NFL teaching ranks in 2019 as Sean McVay’s assistant quarterbacks coach in Los Angeles, and he was on that workers yearly earlier than taking the Falcons’ offensive coordinator job this offseason. As such, the Falcons are operating plenty of the Rams’ best hits when it comes to dropback passing design, however a few of the roles are miscast, and there is a regarding lack of each bells and whistles. Take Kyle Pitts. The 6-foot-6 tight finish isn’t a shake-and-bake route runner, but he is continually being requested to run slants, pivots and velocity outs — all these are quick-breaking routes by way of which his lengthy physique labors to vary path. Pitts is the worst go catcher within the league proper now by ESPN Analytics’ Open Score metric. Even if you happen to suppose Pitts is a whole bust, a good finish who runs a 4.44-second 40-yard sprint shouldn’t be struggling to get open targets by design.
However a participant of Pitts’ mould has by no means been dropped into this offense the place tight ends are regularly requested to remain in line, maintain blocks within the operating sport, after which break into the beneath areas and uncover rapidly. That is not precisely the place Pitts is finest — I might favor him operating vertically off of play-action, a la George Kittle in San Francisco — however getting him the ball with area will permit him to interrupt angles after the catch with velocity. However as a result of the Falcons do not like Pitts as an in line blocker, they cannot determine the way to get him of their play-action passing sport. Of Pitts’ 96 routes this season, six have include a play-action pretend. He has one goal.
Even the stuff that’s supposed to be simple is not translating. The best button within the McVay offense is getting gamers open off of movement — snapping the ball whereas they’re on the run, after which rapidly throwing to them whereas they’ve a bonus through leverage or velocity. In Los Angeles final season, Puka Nacua had three video games during which he had at the least 50 receiving yards off movement; Cooper Kupp had one other two. The Falcons have no participant with at the least 50 receiving yards off movement in whole this season. Kupp has twice as many yards off of movement this season (99) than London does (47), although London has performed twice as many video games.
The Falcons do not want an under-center operating sport to make that a part of the McVay offense work. It helps, however McVay and Matthew Stafford have been working that from the shotgun dropback sport for seasons now. You possibly can argue London is not a Kupp-like participant (I might disagree), however Atlanta ought to nonetheless be capable of discover touches for him off movement. Take Mooney, who was signed by the Falcons to fill the Tutu Atwell position within the offense. He has 46 yards off of movement this season; Atwell has 196.
Regardless of the exact calibration of settings is that makes the Rams offense go, the Falcons haven’t been in a position to replicate it over 4 weeks. Cousins’ limitations aren’t the entire story there. The excessive quantity Ray-Ray McCloud III video games cannot be the plan. Zero separation for Pitts is unacceptable. The design is not working in Atlanta.
That is the place Cousins’ bodily limitations now grow to be doubly damaging. He hurts the offense in construction, affecting the timing of the below heart operating sport and passing sport alike — however then he hurts you once more out of construction as a result of he cannot create. The Falcons’ in-structure passing sport is not good, but it surely’s adequate — the issue is, there’s nothing within the out-of-structure sport to salvage these completely coated performs.
Cousins has just one scramble this season, however he has by no means been a prolific scrambler. Fairly, it is the actual fact he can not reset the pocket or throw on the transfer that has the Falcons’ offense in handcuffs. He has tried a smaller chunk of his passes whereas on the transfer than any quarterback this yr save for Andy Dalton, and no person has tried fewer passes outdoors of the pocket. The whole passing world for the Falcons offense lives statuesque between the tackles, which permits go rushers to tee off at a predictable aiming level and emboldens these aggressive defensive backs to shut on these routes they anticipate — as a result of hey, even when they’re improper, Cousins will not prolong the play and punish them.
Now, Cousins is extra restricted as a pocket mover and play extender than he had been — however the Falcons weren’t precisely anticipating prime Patrick Mahomes after they signed the 36-year-old in March. The plan was all the time that the in-structure passing sport was ample — however as a result of it is not, the out-of-structure worries are being put into sharp aid.
Subsequent up? Todd Bowles and the 3-1 Buccaneers come into city, a crew that likes to blitz, disguise and problem receivers. The home windows are going to be tight once more. The construction of the play goes to be misplaced typically. And the Bucs’ rushers can be heating up the pocket. I’ve but to see Cousins reply properly to this, and I am not satisfied that Robinson can beat Bowles on the chalkboard.
In Week 1, the Falcons’ offense seemed like a straightforward repair — get below heart, hand the ball off, then hit a play-action pretend. Is not that the tried-and-true magic of the McVay system, the panacea for any offense’s ills? With a number of extra weeks below our belt, we will see it will not be really easy for Robinson and Cousins, who’ve but to get the offense off the bottom in Atlanta.
