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After the Denver Nuggets, then the reigning champions, eradicated the Los Angeles Lakers in 5 video games final April, five of this website’s six NBA writers picked them to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and 14 of ESPN’s 16 experts did the same. The Nuggets have been the No. 2 seed, however they’d the identical document because the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Nikola Jokic had simply gained his third MVP award in 4 seasons. Jamal Murray had put collectively the perfect common season of his profession. The Timberwolves posed issues with their dimension, however I figured that, even when the video games have been shut, the Nuggets had the sting due to their superior crunch-time execution.
Then Denver misplaced Recreation 1 at residence. In Recreation 2, it scored solely 80 factors, regardless of the Wolves being with out Defensive Participant of the 12 months Rudy Gobert. The Nuggets responded like champions, successful the subsequent three video games, however have been blown out in Recreation 6 at residence and, after constructing a 20-point lead in Recreation 7, collapsed. Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics had thought, identical to the remainder of us, that Denver matched up with them better than anybody else, however we by no means obtained to see it. As an alternative, we have seen Murray seem like a shell of himself on the Olympics and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signal with the Orlando Magic. For a group that employs the perfect participant on the earth, there are lots of questions on its speedy future.
For one, who steps into Caldwell-Pope’s place? In one other universe, that would have been Bruce Brown, however he walked the summer time after the title, so the reply is probably going 23-year-old wing Christian Braun. He might show to be a superb fifth starter, however what concerning the more and more skinny bench? In addition to betting on quite a few younger gamers — certainly one of them, Peyton Watson harm his hamstring early in coaching camp — the entrance workplace, led by Calvin Sales space, signed veterans Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric within the offseason. It’s kind of of a wierd brew, however the core components are nonetheless the identical as in 2023, so Denver ought to nonetheless be thought-about a contender … proper?
The state of play
Final 12 months: Regardless of saying goodbye to Brown and Jeff Inexperienced, the Nuggets’ 57-25 document (No. 5 on offense, No. 8 on protection) was higher than it was of their championship season. Depth was at all times a priority, although, and Denver did not get sufficient from its function gamers in opposition to the Wolves.
The offseason: After signing with Orlando, KCP said the Nuggets should have lost to the Lakers in the first round. DaRon Holmes II, drafted No. 22, tore his Achilles at summer time league, making it much more necessary that Saric, signed utilizing the taxpayer midlevel exception, matches in with the second unit. They gave up two second-rounders to dump Reggie Jackson, and so they gave Westbrook a second-year participant choice on his minimal deal. Murray got a four-year max extension, and quietly, Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan returned on one-year minimums. Gordon could still get an extension, too. Justin Holiday, the seventh man in final 12 months’s playoff rotation, stays unsigned.
Finest case for 2024-25: Braun greater than makes up for KCP’s departure, Murray lastly makes his first All-Star and All-NBA groups, Saric and Westbrook swing playoff video games and, between Watson, Tyson, Strawther and Cancar, the Nuggets discover that they’ve simply sufficient depth to unravel every matchup drawback they encounter; to defeat Boston within the Finals, Jokic delivers the perfect collection of his profession, which is admittedly saying one thing.
Worst case 2024-25: Westbrook will get some 6MOY buzz in November, solely to complete the common season taking pictures 52% on the rim and 22% from 3-point vary, a personification of the Nuggets’ two largest flaws — ground spacing and bench manufacturing — neither of which they will overcome with out Murray on the peak of his powers; within the first spherical, Murray is far from the height of his powers, and their playoff run ends prematurely.
The dialog
Nuggets believer: You do not have to make the case in opposition to the Nuggets as a result of I already know what you are going to say: KCP ought to nonetheless be on the group. Jamal Murray regarded horrible on the Olympics. Russell Westbrook goes to be a catastrophe. Calvin Sales space should not have overpaid Dario Saric this summer time and should not have overpaid Zeke Nnaji final 12 months. And he should not have, for the second 12 months in a row, given Michael Malone a bench stuffed with younger guys who aren’t but viable in a playoff setting and veterans who’re now not viable in a playoff setting. It is such a disgrace to see a franchise fail the perfect participant on the planet.
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: You need extra? OK, I am positive you will go on and on about how the Nuggets do not shoot almost sufficient 3s, by no means get to the free-throw line and barely power any turnovers. Nikola Jokic is a pleasure to observe, you will say, however why cannot this silly entrance workplace ease the burden on him? There should be somebody who can inform the Nuggets that it is OK to attain some fast-break factors each every so often!
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: Ha! See, I knew you did not have something unique to say. You have been most likely planning to quote some statistic to emphasise how horrible the non-Jokic minutes have been final season, however I am one step forward of you: Within the 862 possessions that Murray performed with out Jokic, Denver was outscored by 15.7 factors per 100 possessions, and its offense was worse than the league-worst Grizzlies‘, per Cleansing The Glass. You’d name that embarrassing, proper?
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: Yep, I’ve you pegged. Simply one other informal observer of a group that’s being broadly neglected as a championship contender. You’ll be able to second-guess Sales space’s entrance workplace and whine about Michael Malone’s teaching selections all you need proper now, so long as you are ready to look again at your little complaints when the Nuggets are again within the Finals. The common season hasn’t even began, and it is already obvious that they are going to be superior once more. Malone would not have called Murray “healthy” and “explosive” if he have been nonetheless coping with no matter was limiting him on the Olympics. Westbrook could be erratic, positive, however he additionally addresses a bunch of the “flaws” that everybody’s been freaking out about — he can discover simple factors in transition, get to the free throw line, put strain on the rim and create 3s for others. Braun might not have the gravity of KCP on the perimeter, however he is greater, stronger and a significantly better match defensively. His capacity to defend large wings frees up Aaron Gordon to work as a roamer extra typically and defend the rim when opponents put Jokic within the pick-and-roll. Cancar, greater than a 12 months faraway from his ACL tear, offers the group some extra dimension at 3/4, and Saric — an apparent match as a playmaking 5 — can each submit up in opposition to switches and house the ground. Personally, although, I am most excited concerning the forthcoming vindication of Sales space’s draft technique. Please familiarize your self with Julian Strawther, particularly should you’re all bent off form concerning the taking pictures Denver misplaced when it let KCP stroll.
Nuggets skeptic: Uh, are you finished?
Nuggets believer: The skeptic speaks! Lastly! And no, I am not finished! I might speak concerning the 2024-25 Denver Nuggets — and the way they’re being misevaluated — for hours. To paraphrase my forthcoming manifesto on the topic: The best way individuals speak concerning the Nuggets is a microcosm of every thing that’s improper with the best way individuals discuss sports activities. As an alternative of appreciating that they’ve constructed a constantly elite offense round a transcendent, wholly unique famous person, individuals complain that they do not do issues the very same approach as all people else. As an alternative of applauding Murray for taking part in via a calf harm and an elbow harm within the playoffs — and making a number of game-winners — and suiting up for Canada at lower than 100%, individuals use his numbers in these conditions in opposition to him. As an alternative of specializing in the truth that lineups that includes their 4 returning starters had a plus-13.2 level differential final season, individuals lament the lack of the fifth starter as if he have been a famous person. Hey, what if the Nuggets are so exhausting to cease in clutch conditions partially as a result of they do not depend on 3s, whistles or forcing turnovers? What if Murray’s willingness to play via ache is among the causes the entrance workplace loves him and is snug investing in him long-term? What if the entrance workplace believes Braun can increase the group’s ceiling, and that throwing him to the wolves is the easiest way to verify he reaches his? I perceive that the Nuggets did not signal Paul George or make some enormous commerce this summer time, however they gained the championship two seasons in the past and may need repeated if not for one ghastly second half in opposition to Minnesota. Groups this good need not make huge strikes, and, till the league figures out a solution for the Murray-Jokic two-man sport, I do not see any cause to be down on this one. Bear in mind how excited the basketball intelligentsia was when Aaron Gordon first obtained to Denver? The Nuggets are approach higher than they have been then, and so they’re battle-tested. I’d have picked them in opposition to the Celtics final season, and I am going to decide them to win the 2025 title proper now. I do not care that they are not the shiny new factor.
Nuggets skeptic: Effectively, that was so much. Your manifesto sounds fascinating, although. Ever assume you is likely to be a tad defensive concerning the Nuggets? Perhaps a wee bit insecure about their title possibilities? In that case, I’m wondering why that is likely to be! Anyway, you really did an honest job of outlining most of the group’s potential issues earlier than you waved all of them away. All I used to be going to say — had you not determined to talk for me — was that we’re about to be taught so much about this group and the entrance workplace that constructed it. I do know that the 4 returning starters are superior collectively, and I do know that Braun can a minimum of play within the playoffs. KCP, Bruce Brown and Jeff Green have been all necessary throughout the title run, although, and I’ve completely no concept if the complementary gamers on this roster can fill their footwear. It was mere months in the past that Malone eliminated Peyton Watson from the playoff rotation as a result of no one was guarding him. On the similar time, Westbrook, as a member of the Clippers, was going utterly haywire. I may need been a bit cautious about giving Murray all that assured cash, however I wasn’t even planning to criticize Sales space for that — I am prepared to imagine that he is aware of way more about Murray’s bodily situation than most people does. I am much less prepared, nevertheless, to present Sales space the advantage of the doubt concerning the younger guys’ readiness to play on the highest degree and the Nuggets’ post-title expertise drain. Nonetheless, whereas I can not communicate for the basketball intelligentsia, I can not wait to see Murray and Jokic run the two-man sport in opposition to the Thunder on Oct. 24, and I am open to the likelihood that this roster has every thing it wants. This (sane, mildly important) perspective does not lend itself to a manifesto, but it surely’s higher than making predictions in blind religion. Based mostly on what we all know proper now, I am going to take OKC within the opener and within the West.
