The Blue Jays Could Have Some Powerful Selections To Make

The Blue Jays are clearly not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The membership performed at a 90-win tempo over the earlier 4 years, making the playoffs in three of these seasons and falling only one recreation quick in 2021. However right here in 2024, they’re 21-26, final within the East and forward of simply the Athletics, Angels and White Sox within the American League standings.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs presently give them a 17.9% of stepping into the postseason, although the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are extra bullish and nonetheless give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden scorching streak might definitely change these numbers in a rush, however because the sand retains falling by way of the hourglass, the membership should take into consideration how they deal with a summer time the place they’re unexpectedly out of rivalry.

Proper-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his phrases when assessing the state of affairs yesterday, per Rob Longley of The Toronto Sun. “The fact is that if we don’t play nicely, this staff won’t be collectively for for much longer,” Gausman mentioned. “It’d make one other 12 months. It’d make one other 12 months and a half. It’d make a few months. That’s simply the truth.”

There are numerous methods to play issues when dealt a hand like that. Final 12 months’s Cardinals, as an illustration, determined to solely commerce away impending free brokers and hold the core intact for one more shot at rivalry in 2024. They flipped impending free brokers Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong so as to add some youthful gamers to the system however stored a lot of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

If the Jays had been to take that path, their impending free brokers are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run common final 12 months and is all the way down to 2.64 this 12 months, so he would definitely have curiosity. García is putting out 35.3% of batters confronted this 12 months and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout price. Buying and selling catchers is a bit tough midseason due to the challenges of studying a brand new pitching employees, however Jansen hits sufficient that he might enchantment to a membership searching for a man to function a chosen hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting a lot this 12 months however might definitely make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending membership. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having nice years and would wish to get scorching to have some commerce worth.

Even with buying and selling Kikuchi, the membership might go into 2025 with a robust beginning rotation to construct round. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are nonetheless below contract or membership management subsequent 12 months, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.

The bigger and tougher questions for the Jays will contain wanting deeper into the longer term. They’ve a lot of gamers who’re set to be free brokers after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being essentially the most notable, although the listing additionally contains Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com just lately explored the concept of Bichette and Guerrero being obtainable and requested an nameless government about it. “I don’t suppose they’re against it,” the chief mentioned of the Jays. “They’ve talked to groups about it. The asks had been ridiculous, however I believe they’re going to attempt to retool lots, and utilizing these guys to get items could be the option to do it.”

There’s nothing essentially shocking in that. Entrance workplace members focus on every kind of commerce eventualities that by no means come to fruition. Given the place the Jays are within the standings, it’s logical that common supervisor Ross Atkins and his staff would discover their choices. And it’s additionally smart that they might set an enormous asking value with nonetheless over two months till the deadline.

Whether or not they pull the set off on a deal for Guerrero or Bichette or each will depend upon varied components. The membership’s document right here in 2024 would clearly be one issue, as would the group’s perspective on their possibilities at one other shot at rivalry in 2025. Naturally, the sorts of provides being placed on the desk may also be vital and it’s truthful to surprise what sort of form they might take proper about now.

Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 prior to now 5 seasons for a 127 wRC+ however is slashing simply .226/.284/.327 right here in 2024, which interprets to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout price to 14.8%, which might be a profession low by a big margin, however he has simply two house runs thus far. His .257 batting common on balls in play is nicely beneath the .349 mark he carried into the 12 months however he’s additionally not squaring the ball up like earlier than. His 4.2% barrel price this 12 months is lower than half his profession clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and laborious hit charges nonetheless look corresponding to earlier years, so rival golf equipment would undoubtedly have curiosity in buying Bichette and getting a bounceback, however the Jays wouldn’t precisely be promoting excessive if these sorts of numbers maintain for the subsequent few months.

Guerrero’s not in a gap like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the 12 months. He solely has 4 house runs however is drawing walks at a 12.6% price. His general offensive manufacturing interprets to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it surely’s additionally not the elite manufacturing he confirmed again in 2021, when he hit 48 house runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it simply barely cracks the highest ten amongst certified first basemen within the league this 12 months. Given the hole between his ceiling and his present efficiency, maybe the provides from different golf equipment gained’t match up with what the Jays predict.

There’s additionally the general public relations query of whether or not the membership needs to ship out the 2 gamers who’ve been the collective faces of the franchise since earlier than they even made it to the key leagues. There are some gamers placing up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this 12 months, with every of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez presently having a 112 wRC+ or increased in additional than 100 plate appearances this 12 months. Maybe there’s an argument for opening up enjoying time for a few of the guys in that group, however none of them have the identical stage of prospect pedigree nor the title recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable transfer from each a roster building angle and a PR standpoint.

Maybe the Jays gained’t get a suggestion that’s engaging sufficient to make them cross this threshold. Possibly they hold the gang collectively for one more shot in 2025. Maybe they go on a scorching streak and make this all moot. In spite of everything, they’re solely 3.5 video games again of a playoff spot at this second.

But when they keep on the fringes of the race, they’ve some tough selections to make. Buying and selling leases can be the simple half in the event that they keep behind the remainder of the Wild Card pack. Whether or not to maneuver on to guys with additional management will probably be a trickier determination. It could probably cut back the membership’s possibilities in 2025 however might be their finest path to restocking their farm system, relying on what sort of provides they get. With so many gamers set to hit free company both this 12 months or subsequent, there would absolutely be some temptation to infuse the system with younger and controllable expertise at this 12 months’s deadline, if the chance to take action is there.

They’d additionally unencumber a little bit of payroll area within the course of. Bichette is making $11MM this 12 months and can make $16.5MM subsequent 12 months. Guerrero is making $19.9MM this 12 months and will probably be set for a elevate through arbitration into the $25-30MM vary subsequent 12 months. The Jays might then pivot to the free agent market, as they don’t have an enormous quantity on the long-term books. Solely Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are below contract previous 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the one vital contract on the books. His deal solely goes by way of 2028 and he may also decide out after 2026.

Taking all of that into consideration, it is going to be an essential summer time for the Blue Jays. Within the months to return, the video games on the sector and the conversations going down off of it would undoubtedly be enjoying an enormous function in the way forward for the franchise.