The Astros Lastly Launch José Abreu

After a 12 months of caressing hopes for a triumphant return of José Abreu’s salad days, the Astros launched the veteran first baseman on Friday, ending his disappointing tenure in Houston. It could be an understatement to say the 37-year-old Abreu struggled this season; throughout 35 video games, he batted .124/.167/.195 with two residence runs, for an wRC+ of two and a WAR that I received’t repeat on account of the potential of kids studying. The Astros nonetheless owe Abreu a hair beneath $31 million of the three-year deal he signed quickly after the 2022 season, although they’ll be on the hook for barely lower than that if one other staff indicators him for the pro-rated league minimal.

If David Ortiz’s magnificent last season represents the optimum situation for a beloved veteran slugger to achieve retirement, then Abreu’s time with the Astros exemplifies the opposite far finish of the spectrum. Throughout his 9 years with the White Sox, from 2014-22, Abreu was one of the crucial constant sluggers in baseball, batting .292/.354/.506 with 243 residence runs, a 133 wRC+, and 28.3 WAR. He had 5 30-homer seasons, and that doesn’t embody the shortened 2020 marketing campaign, when he smacked 19 longballs, a full-season tempo of 51, en path to successful the AL MVP award. With Chicago, he additionally earned AL Rookie of the 12 months honors (2014), made three All-Star groups (’14, ’18, ’19), and received three Silver Sluggers (’14, ’18, ’20). When he grew to become a free agent after his age-35 season and the White Sox didn’t present a lot curiosity in bringing him again, Abreu rapidly signed with the Astros, who had received the World Collection a couple of weeks earlier.

It appeared like the perfect vacation spot for his three-year autumnal epilogue. Houston wasn’t relying on him to be the centerpiece of the lineup; reasonably, his function could be to shore up first base and/or designated hitter for a couple of years and assist stars like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With the Astros coming off a 106-win season and a World Collection championship, with a lot of their core gamers returning, it definitely appeared that his new staff would offer Abreu a greater likelihood to win a hoop than he would’ve had with the clearly fading White Sox. To get an thought of what the cheap expectations have been for Abreu when he signed with Houston, let’s take a look at his three-year ZiPS projections heading into the 2023 season:

Whereas ZiPS was skeptical that Abreu could be an on a regular basis starter for all three years in Houston, it broadly thought he could be an satisfactory average-ish possibility for a 12 months or two. Abreu acquired off to a wretched begin final 12 months, hitting .214/.262/.253 with no residence runs by way of Might 14 whereas beginning 39 of the staff’s first 40 video games. As I wrote last April, there wasn’t even a touch that his struggles have been a fluke; his plate self-discipline had deteriorated and his energy evaporated like a puddle after a July thunderstorm in Texas.

There are some extremely regarding points in Abreu’s early-season profile this 12 months that weren’t current in different early begins. When he struggles, he nonetheless typically hits the ball extraordinarily exhausting. This 12 months, his exit velocity has averaged 86.6 mph with an general hard-hit fee of 36.7% — extraordinarily low numbers for him. He was awful final April, hitting .217/.308/.348, however he was nonetheless crushing pitches he linked with, leading to a 94.6 mph common EV and a hard-hit fee of 59.6%. He additionally struggled in April 2021, hitting .213/.296/.394, however with a 92.1 mph EV and a 53.7% hard-hit fee — not fairly nearly as good as 2022, however worlds higher than the place these numbers presently stand. He acquired off to good begins in 2018 and ’19, so that they’re not significantly useful, and he crushed the ball in August of 2020 (I didn’t embody any 2020 seasons within the April numbers, because the 12 months was simply too bizarre).

Abreu performed considerably higher over the remainder of the 2023 marketing campaign, hitting .246/.309/.435 with 18 homers throughout 102 video games and capping issues off with 4 homers within the postseason. Relatively than taking Abreu’s early-season woes as a warning that the tip was close to, the Astros proceeded to do little or no to select up one other bat over the offseason; their largest transfer so as to add some growth to the lineup got here once they acquired Trey Cabbage from the Los Angeles Angels. Given Houston’s ALCS elimination by the hands of its cross-state rivals, the Texas Rangers, and its 90-72 report being its weakest since 2016, it’s exhausting to guess why the Astros took such a lackadaisical strategy to a attainable difficulty. Whether or not it has to do with the front office overhaul after James Click left is a subject for an additional day.

This season began off even worse for Abreu. He hit .111/.161/.123 with no homers, for an OPS (.284) that was even decrease than the profession OPS of Corridor of Fame pitcher/extraordinarily awkward hitter Randy Johnson (.305). His exit velocity numbers regarded quite a bit like they did the earlier April, and he didn’t hit a single barrel. Issues have been so tough that Abreu agreed to be optioned to the minors to determine issues out, resulting in the reasonably odd sight of a former MVP debuting within the minors at age 37; he went straight to the majors 10 years in the past after the White Sox signed him as a global free agent out of Cuba, and he by no means even performed within the minors on an harm rehab task. Abreu did get again to Houston after a stint in Rookie-ball and a pair video games with Triple-A Sugar Land, and he even hit two homers this month. However the writing was on the wall, and with the Mariners lastly placing some area between them and the remainder of the AL West, the Astros clearly couldn’t afford to attend endlessly for an additional revival that will by no means come.

Over the brief time period, Jon Singleton is prone to proceed to get nearly all of the enjoying time at first base with Abreu out of the image, however saying Singleton improves the staff is damning with faint reward; whereas it was cool to see him come again to the majors after a decade away, he’s probably not a productive main league bat. Singleton turns 33 later this 12 months and is a .183/.294/.322 profession hitter within the majors, with projections that rank from horrible (.214/.327/.388 in Steamer, .215/.324/.376 in ZiPS) to much more horrible (THE BAT at .193/.289/.343). Rookie Joey Loperfido would appear to be the plain in-house answer to interchange Abreu, however he’s primarily been an outfielder up to now and the group hasn’t given him many begins at first base in Triple-A, which appears inconsistent with the concept the Astros will provide him the subsequent crack on the job. A giant enchancment right here probably would require a bigger commerce, and I’m frankly unsure the decision-makers in Houston proper now are outfitted to maneuver swiftly and deftly.

What’s subsequent for Abreu? Whereas the pure inclination could be a return to the White Sox, I believe that may be a dreadful thought. Mal Tiempo doesn’t deliver dangerous climate to opposing pitchers anymore, and I can’t assist however really feel that all the pieces good he’ll be remembered for in Chicago is previously. The Sox want to make use of their dropping season extra productively than a farewell tour for Abreu, and a bench bat with the Pale Hose received’t get Abreu one final run within the playoffs. Maybe the Dodgers will signal him in July and he’ll slug .700 in 100 at-bats in a part-time function, as a result of they’re the Dodgers.

A enjoyable participant for a very long time and a fantastic chief for the staff and his metropolis, Abreu’s virtually definitely going to fall in need of the Corridor of Fame, even perhaps dropping off the poll after his first 12 months of eligibility. It could be surprising if he added a lot to his profession 263 homers or 26.3 WAR (which is definitely two wins lower than it was when he left the White Sox), and we’ve but to see the Corridor of Fame voters credit score overseas play to get a borderline participant excessive. Ichiro Suzuki will simply make the Corridor of Fame when he debuts on the poll within the upcoming election, however that may be the case even when he had by no means performed in Japan. I wrote slightly about the potential of together with Abreu’s time in Cuba to judge his Corridor of Fame case back in 2021, however that was extra of a theoretical train than a critical expectation he’ll get votes.

No, Abreu will not be going out on his greatest, however the cruelty of time in baseball isn’t that totally different from life. Sooner or later, all of us will lose our means to do the issues we’re nice at, the issues we love, and finally, something in any respect. It’s simply that as a ballplayer, his transition comes at a comparatively youthful age beneath very public scrutiny. I’ve all the time been a fan of the Orson Welles quote on the topic, and it’s one I’ve mentioned that I’d wish to have on my eventual epitaph: “If you need a contented ending, that relies upon, in fact, on the place you cease your story.” If that is the melancholy last chapter of the story of Abreu’s baseball profession, it was nonetheless a quantity that was fantastic to learn.