Via two weeks, almost 60% of Eliminator Problem entries have already been worn out. The proportion is even greater in a number of high-stakes tournaments, together with at Circa the place over 67% of entrants have already been knocked out.
The three greatest favorites to date this season have all misplaced outright, with each the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions falling, regardless of being at the least 7-point favorites. The most well-liked Eliminator choose has gone down in each weeks, with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 and the Ravens final week.
Nothing has been simple to date this season. Out of the eight groups which were favored by at the least six factors to date this season, none have coated the unfold.
On paper, Week 3 appears to be like like probably the most simple week this season. There are a number of huge favorites listed under, all are at house in opposition to dangerous groups, and none of these groups are extraordinarily useful to save lots of for the long run.
Because of this, choice percentages ought to be comparatively unfold out this week, with no staff anticipated to be over 20% chosen. Robust instances might be made for the entire huge favorites this week, with the highest choose being the Cleveland Browns.
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Prime Picks
1. Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants
That is the Browns’ largest projected favourite function in any recreation this season in response to each Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. The Browns have one of many hardest house schedules within the NFL on paper, and their next-easiest recreation is a highway recreation at Denver in Week 13. Clay additionally provides the Browns a 79% probability to win this week, the perfect probability on all the board. As is the case with a number of different huge favorites this week, it is unlikely the Browns are overwhelming chalk this week.
ESPN BET odds: Browns -6 (-280 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Browns have 64% probability to win
Eliminator Problem: 13% chosen
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
The Buccaneers are the largest favorites of the week in response to ESPN Analytics, internet hosting a Broncos staff that charges out as one of many worst within the NFL. After this week, the Buccaneers should not projected to be favored once more till Week 12. Nevertheless, they may face the lowly Panthers in two of their closing six video games, which may come in useful late within the season. That’s the predominant tiebreaker in favor of the Browns over the Buccaneers. The Broncos are thirty first in offensive EPA per play and have managed one landing all season.
ESPN BET odds: Buccaneers -6.5 (-300 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Buccaneers have 69% probability to win
Eliminator Problem: 14% chosen
3. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
The third alternative this week comes all the way down to how huge your group is. In smaller teams which can be unlikely to final all 18 weeks, the Jets and Bengals are barely extra more likely to win.
Nevertheless, in bigger teams, the Raiders have the strongest mixture of win likelihood and lack of future worth. That is considered one of solely two video games all season the place Mike Clay provides the Raiders greater than a 50% probability to win. They might have been the best choice earlier than the Panthers benched Bryce Young, however the Panthers’ transfer to Andy Dalton truly upgraded their ranking within the betting market. Nonetheless, Carolina appears to be like just like the worst staff within the NFL for the second straight season, and fading them on the highway in opposition to any staff with a pulse ought to be a worthwhile Eliminator technique.
ESPN BET odds: Raiders -5.5 (-240 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Raiders have 62% probability to win
Eliminator Problem: 16% chosen
Different choices
4. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Washington Commanders on Monday)
5. New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots on Thursday)
6. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Miami Dolphins)
